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Worked solution

Use a unique mode to bound p, then sketch a different distribution

Five people are sampled from a large village. (i) X counts those who are underweight; state in context an assumption needed for a binomial model. (ii) The village proportion underweight is p, and the mode of X is 2. Show that 1/3<p<1/21/3<p<1/2. (iii) Given instead X∼B(5,0.25)X\sim B(5,0.25), sketch its distribution.

[2017/DHS/II/9(modified)]

CJC · Lecture · Example 11

(i) State a contextual assumption

The source accepts either: the probability that a chosen person is underweight remains constant throughout the sample, or whether a chosen person is underweight is independent of whether other people are underweight. The full binomial model needs both constant p and independent trials; this part asks for one assumption in context.

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(ii) Compare the mass at one with the mass at two

The strict bounds requested by the source interpret 2 as the unique mode. Then P(X=1)<P(X=2)P(X=1)<P(X=2), so (51)p(1−p)4<(52)p2(1−p)3\binom51p(1-p)^4<\binom52p^2(1-p)^3. A mode at 2 rules out p=0 or p=1; therefore p>0p>0 and 1−p>01-p>0. Cancel positive factors to obtain 1−p<2p1-p<2p, hence p>1/3p>1/3.

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(ii) Compare the mass at two with the mass at three

Also P(X=2)>P(X=3)P(X=2)>P(X=3), giving (52)p2(1−p)3>(53)p3(1−p)2\binom52p^2(1-p)^3>\binom53p^3(1-p)^2. Cancel positive factors to get 1−p>p1-p>p, hence p<1/2p<1/2. This is the distinct Teacher completion. Together 1/3<p<1/21/3<p<1/2, as required. If 2 were merely one of possibly tied modes, the endpoints would be included: at p=1/3 modes 1 and 2 tie, and at p=1/2 modes 2 and 3 tie.

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(iii) Sketch the six probability masses

This part gives a different parameter p=0.25; do not carry the range from (ii) into it. Use Y1=binompdf(5,0.25,X) and its table. The exact masses are

xP(X=x)P(X=x)
0243/1024243/1024
1405/1024405/1024
2270/1024270/1024
390/102490/1024
415/102415/1024
51/10241/1024

Plot separate points/crosses at 0 through 5. The source labels the first five heights approximately 0.237,0.396,0.264,0.0879,0.0146. Its final label (5,0) is inaccurate: P(X=5)=(0.25)5=1/1024≈0.000977>0P(X=5)=(0.25)^5=1/1024\approx0.000977>0, consistent with the source calculator’s 9.8E−4. The native sketch corrects this positive final mass; the original printed plot and text remain in source evidence. The mode of this new distribution is 1.

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Compare your sketch

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Native reconstruction of the source discrete cross-marker plot and calculator screens for B(5,.25). Exact masses are 243,405,270,90,15,1 over 1024 at 0 through 5. The source final point is labelled (5,0), but the probability is positive 1/1024; corrected here and explained in the working. No joining continuous curve is implied.
Native reconstruction of the source discrete cross-marker plot and calculator screens for B(5,.25). Exact masses are 243,405,270,90,15,1 over 1024 at 0 through 5. The source final point is labelled (5,0), but the probability is positive 1/1024; corrected here and explained in the working. No joining continuous curve is implied.
Native reconstruction of the source discrete cross-marker plot and calculator screens for B(5,.25). Exact masses are 243,405,270,90,15,1 over 1024 at 0 through 5. The source final point is labelled (5,0), but the probability is positive 1/1024; corrected here and explained in the working. No joining continuous curve is implied.

Common mistakes

Strict mode bounds assume a unique mode; a very small probability is still positive.

Read the hint