Worked solution
Fit a logistic model using both printed integration methods
[Diseases modelling]
A community has 1000 people. The infected population x at t days satisfies , with . Initially one person is infected; after five days 12% are infected. Find when half the population has contracted the disease and state an assumption of the model.
[2008/HCI/Promo/Q8]
CJC · Lecture · Example 10
Separate using partial fractions
For , . Integration gives , where the combined constant can also be written as 1000C, as in the source.
Source method 1: use the contextual range
Since , remove the modulus signs. “Initially” means t=0: x=1 gives . At t=5, x=120, so . Setting x=500 gives , hence days.
Source method 2: exponentiate the absolute-value ratio
gives after absorbing sign and constant magnitude into A. At t=0, A=1/999. At t=5, , so . At x=500 the ratio is 1, yielding the same 7.03 days. One source substitution line drops the last 2 in the ratio denominator and shows 2997/2; the earlier fitted k and later calculation both use 2997/22. The correct fitted value is retained here.
State the source assumption and model scope
The population remains constant: nobody dies, leaves or enters the community. This is the printed closed-community assumption. The model also represents infected population continuously and has no recovery term; its solution from x=1 stays between 0 and 1000. The mathematical equilibria x=0 and x=1000 were excluded during separation but do not match the initial condition.
Common mistakes
The coefficient multiplies the number infected and the number not infected; keep both factors.