A hint to get started
Count tries when keys are tested without replacement
John has four keys, only one of which unlocks a door. He tries the keys randomly without replacement. X is the number of tries needed to unlock the door.
(i) Show that .
(ii) Tabulate the distribution of X.
(iii) Write down and .
(iv) Find .
[2006/CJC/II/23]
CJC · Lecture · Example 16
Remove each unsuccessful key before finding the next conditional probability.
Use the successful key’s position to explain the uniform distribution.
Solve the squared inequality, then intersect it with the possible numbers of tries.