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Worked solution

A lower-tail test at the 1% level

A random variable XX is known to have a normal distribution with variance 36. The mean of the distribution of XX is denoted by μ\mu. A random sample of 50 observations of XX has mean 20.2. Test, at the 1% level of significance, the null hypothesis μ=22\mu=22 against μ<22\mu<22.

CJC · Lecture · Example 1

Set up the exact null distribution

Test H0:μ=22H_0:\mu=22 against H1:μ<22H_1:\mu<22, where μ\mu is the population mean. Under H0H_0, X∼N(22,36)X\sim N(22,36) and Xˉ∼N(22,36/50)\bar X\sim N(22,36/50). The known standard deviation is 6. The teacher strategy recommends the p-value approach because all required summary data are available.

How did this part go?

Calculate by a normal tail or Z-Test

z=(20.2−22)/(6/50)=−2.121320344…z=(20.2-22)/(6/\sqrt{50})=-2.121320344\ldots. The lower-tail probability is P(Xˉ≤20.2)=P(Z≤−2.121320344…)=0.01694742676…≈0.0169P(\bar X\le20.2)=P(Z\le-2.121320344\ldots)=0.01694742676\ldots\approx0.0169. The source’s alternative calculator route is STAT → TESTS → Z-Test → Stats: enter μ0=22\mu_0=22, σ=6\sigma=6, xˉ=20.2\bar x=20.2, n=50n=50, select μ<μ0\mu<\mu_0, then Calculate. Its screen reports z=−2.121320344z=-2.121320344, p=0.0169473661p=0.0169473661; that slightly different last-digit value is preserved here, while the independent CDF calculation agrees to the printed 0.0169.

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Conclude at the requested level

Reject H0H_0 when p≤0.01p\le0.01. Since 0.0169>0.010.0169>0.01, do not reject H0H_0. There is insufficient evidence at the 1% level that the population mean is below 22. A result that would be significant at 5% need not be significant at 1%.

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Common mistakes

Use standard deviation 6, not variance 36, in the Z-Test input. The requested level is 1%, not 5%.

Solution notes

Teacher strategy, complete conclusion and calculator inputs/output were visually compared with PDF 14–15 (printed 81–82). The population distribution is a null model; writing N(22,36) is conditional on H₀.

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