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Worked solution

Test for a change after servicing a machine

The lengths of metal bars produced by a particular machine are normally distributed with mean length 420 cm and standard deviation 12 cm.

The machine is serviced, after which a sample of 100 bars gives a mean length of 423 cm.

Is there evidence, at the 5% level of significance, of a change in the mean length of the bars produced by the machine, assuming that the standard deviation remains the same?

CJC · Lecture · Example 2

Choose a two-sided alternative

Let XX denote a post-service bar length in cm and μ\mu the population mean length. Test H0:μ=420H_0:\mu=420 against H1:μ≠420H_1:\mu\ne420. “A change” requires both directions even though the observed mean is higher. Under H0H_0, X∼N(420,122)X\sim N(420,12^2) and Xˉ∼N(420,122/100)\bar X\sim N(420,12^2/100).

How did this part go?

Find the two-sided p-value

The standard error is 12/100=1.212/\sqrt{100}=1.2 cm, so z=(423−420)/1.2=2.5z=(423-420)/1.2=2.5. By symmetry, p=P(∣Z∣≥2.5)=2P(Z≥2.5)=0.01241933065…≈0.0124p=P(|Z|\ge2.5)=2P(Z\ge2.5)=0.01241933065\ldots\approx0.0124. The source’s Z-Test screen uses μ0=420\mu_0=420, σ=12\sigma=12, xˉ=423\bar x=423, n=100n=100 and the μ≠μ0\mu\ne\mu_0 alternative; it reports z=2.5z=2.5 and p=0.0124193597p=0.0124193597. Its last digits differ slightly from the independent CDF calculation but both round to 0.0124.

How did this part go?

State the contextual conclusion

At 5%, reject H0H_0 when p≤0.05p\le0.05. Since 0.0124≤0.050.0124\le0.05, reject H0H_0: there is sufficient evidence that the population mean bar length has changed after servicing, assuming the standard deviation remains 12 cm. This is evidence for a change in the mean, not for a change in variance.

How did this part go?

Common mistakes

Do not halve the two-sided p-value because the observed mean happens to increase. Keep the unchanged standard-deviation assumption.

Solution notes

Teacher-filled hypotheses, sample-mean variance, standardisation, rejection rule and calculator selection are integrated into the corresponding steps. No printed marks or exam attribution.

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