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Reverse a known-variance test for mean time and sample size

In a factory, the time in minutes for an employee to install an electronics component is a normally distributed continuous random variable TT, with standard deviation 5.0 and ordinary expected value 38.0. After background music is introduced, a sample of nn components is taken and the mean time for randomly chosen employees is tˉ\bar t minutes. A test at 5% determines whether the population mean installation time has been reduced.

(i) State appropriate hypotheses, defining any symbols.

(ii) Given n=50n=50, state the set of values of tˉ\bar t for which the test rejects H0H_0.

(iii) Suppose instead that tˉ=37.1\bar t=37.1 and H0H_0 is not rejected. Obtain an inequality involving nn and find the set of values that nn can take.

[2011/II/10]

CJC · Lecture · Example 6

(i) Define the parameter and hypotheses

Let μ\mu be the population mean installation time in minutes after music is introduced. Test H0:μ=38.0H_0:\mu=38.0 against H1:μ<38.0H_1:\mu<38.0. The known standard deviation remains 5.0 minutes. Under H0H_0, T∼N(38,25)T\sim N(38,25) and Tˉ∼N(38,25/n)\bar T\sim N(38,25/n) exactly for independent normal sampling.

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(ii) Translate the critical value into a mean boundary

At 5%, the lower critical value is c=Φ−1(0.05)=−1.644853627…c=\Phi^{-1}(0.05)=-1.644853627\ldots. For n=50n=50, reject when (tˉ−38)/(5/50)≤c(\bar t-38)/(5/\sqrt{50})\le c. Thus tˉ≤38+5c/50=36.8369128463…\bar t\le38+5c/\sqrt{50}=36.8369128463\ldots minutes. In the positive-time context this gives 0<tˉ≤36.8369128463…0<\bar t\le36.8369128463\ldots. The source gives 0<tˉ≤36.80<\bar t\le36.8 after rounding; 36.8 is a boundary label, not the exact rejection set for real-valued means.

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(iii) Use strict non-rejection before squaring

With tˉ=37.1\bar t=37.1, the observed statistic is (37.1−38)/(5/n)=−0.18n(37.1-38)/(5/\sqrt n)=-0.18\sqrt n. Since rejection includes equality, non-rejection means −0.18n>c-0.18\sqrt n>c, hence n<−c/0.18\sqrt n<-c/0.18 and n<(c/0.18)2=83.5044275955…n<(c/0.18)^2=83.5044275955\ldots. As nn is a positive integer, n∈{1,2,…,83}n\in\{1,2,\ldots,83\}. The source uses rounded c=−1.6449c=-1.6449, n<9.1383\sqrt n<9.1383, n<83.5n<83.5 and the same integer set. Here normality and known variance justify the test even for small n; do not impose an unnecessary n≥30 restriction.

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The lower 5% rejection tail of a standard normal lies below −1.644853627. For n=50 this corresponds to a mean installation time at most 36.8369128463 minutes. A fixed observed mean 37.1 does not reject exactly for positive integer sample sizes 1 through 83.
The lower 5% rejection tail of a standard normal lies below −1.644853627. For n=50 this corresponds to a mean installation time at most 36.8369128463 minutes. A fixed observed mean 37.1 does not reject exactly for positive integer sample sizes 1 through 83.
The lower 5% rejection tail of a standard normal lies below −1.644853627. For n=50 this corresponds to a mean installation time at most 36.8369128463 minutes. A fixed observed mean 37.1 does not reject exactly for positive integer sample sizes 1 through 83.

Common mistakes

Do not reverse the strict non-rejection inequality. The sample size is an integer; the sample mean is not stated to lie on a rounding grid.

Solution notes

Teacher-filled hypotheses, null distributions, critical rule, mean inequality and integer-size solution integrated in the matching steps. Original source lower rejection sketch reconstructed. No printed marks.

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