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Assess Alice’s claim about mean mass

Suppose the mass of a man in Singapore is assumed to be normally distributed with mean 75 kg and variance 80 kg280\ \mathrm{kg}^2. 100 men are randomly selected from the population and their sample mean mass is 77.2 kg. Alice claims that the population mean mass is actually more than 75 kg. Conduct a hypothesis test at the 5% level of significance.

CJC · Lecture · Opening scenario (unnumbered)

Define the model and hypotheses

Let XX be a randomly selected man’s mass in kg and μ\mu the population mean. Test H0:μ=75H_0:\mu=75 against H1:μ>75H_1:\mu>75. Under H0H_0, X∼N(75,80)X\sim N(75,80) and Xˉ∼N(75,80/100)\bar X\sim N(75,80/100). Normality and known variance make this sampling distribution exact; no CLT approximation is needed.

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Calculate the observed upper-tail probability

The standard error is 80/100\sqrt{80/100} kg, not 80 or 80/10080/100. Thus z=(77.2−75)/80/100=2.459674775…z=(77.2-75)/\sqrt{80/100}=2.459674775\ldots and p=P(Z≥z)=0.006953148…≈0.00695p=P(Z\ge z)=0.006953148\ldots\approx0.00695. The source displays z=2.46z=2.46 but retains the p-value from the unrounded input; keep full precision until the final result.

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Compare with the preselected significance level

Reject H0H_0 if p≤0.05p\le0.05. Here 0.00695<0.050.00695<0.05, so reject H0H_0: there is sufficient evidence at the 5% level that the population mean mass exceeds 75 kg. Under the null, repeated random samples of 100 have probability about 0.00695 of a mean at least 77.2 kg. This is not a probability that the null is true.

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Check the same decision using a critical boundary

The source’s calculator uses inverse normal with upper-tail area 0.05, mean 75 and standard deviation 80/100\sqrt{80/100}: a=75+1.6448536270.8=76.47120181…a=75+1.644853627\sqrt{0.8}=76.47120181\ldots. The source writes the critical region xˉ>76.471\bar x>76.471; the observed 77.2 is inside it. Using the inclusive boundary convention p≤αp\le\alpha gives the same decision; boundary equality has zero probability in this continuous model.

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Compare your sketch

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Under the null model, the sample-mean distribution is centred at 75. Its upper 5% critical boundary is 76.471; the observed mean 77.2 is farther right, with upper-tail probability about 0.00695.
Under the null model, the sample-mean distribution is centred at 75. Its upper 5% critical boundary is 76.471; the observed mean 77.2 is farther right, with upper-tail probability about 0.00695.
Under the null model, the sample-mean distribution is centred at 75. Its upper 5% critical boundary is 76.471; the observed mean 77.2 is farther right, with upper-tail probability about 0.00695.

Common mistakes

The hypothesised mean 75 and observed sample mean 77.2 play different roles. A small p-value does not prove the claim.

Solution notes

Original source scenario is unnumbered and recurs across the lecture; source number 0 is a stable internal identity, not a printed Example 0. Teacher hypotheses and completed probability calculation are integrated. Calculator artwork is not reproduced.

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