Porisma

Worked solution

Translate intervals and tails into normal probabilities

Given X∼N(50,8)X\sim N(50,8), find

(i) P(48<X<54)P(48<X<54),

(ii) P(X>55)P(X>55),

(iii) P(X<52)P(X<52) and

(iv) P(∣X−51∣<3)P(|X-51|<3).

CJC · Lecture · Example 1

(i) Between 48 and 54

The mean is 50 and variance 8, so enter σ=8\sigma=\sqrt 8.

  1. Press MODE and ensure STAT WIZARDS ON for guided entry.
  2. Press 2 nd VARS, select 2:normalcdf, then ENTER.
  3. Enter lower 48, upper 54, μ50 and σ=8\sigma=\sqrt 8; highlight Paste, then ENTER.
  4. Press ENTER to calculate normalcdf(48,54,50,√8).

The displayed probability is 0.6816003607, giving 0.682 (3 s.f.). This is the area between 48 and 54, not the density at either endpoint.

How did this part go?

(ii) Greater than 55

Shade the right tail from 55. Use lower 55, upper 109910^{99}, μ50 and σ=8\sigma=\sqrt 8:

P(X>55)≈normalcdf⁡(55,1099,50,8)=0.0385498886≈0.0385.\begin{aligned}&P(X>55)\approx\operatorname{normalcdf}(55,10^{99},50,\sqrt 8)\\ & =0.0385498886\approx\boxed{0.0385}.\end{aligned}

The large upper bound simulates the infinite tail for this calculation. Recall the Teacher’s asymptote guidance: the density approaches y=0y=0 without terminating at a finite x.

How did this part go?

(iii) Less than 52

Shade everything left of 52. Use lower −1099-10^{99}, upper 52, μ50 and σ=8\sigma=\sqrt 8:

P(X<52)≈normalcdf⁡(−1099,52,50,8)=0.7602500133≈0.760.\begin{aligned}&P(X<52)\approx\operatorname{normalcdf}(-10^{99},52,50,\sqrt 8)\\ & =0.7602500133\approx\boxed{0.760}.\end{aligned}

The lower bound simulates negative infinity. The source’s “graph below” remark refers to the left-tail graph actually printed above the input table.

How did this part go?

(iv) A modulus event

Simplify before using the calculator:

P(∣X−51∣<3)=P(−3<X−51<3)=P(48<X<54)=0.682(3 s.f.).P(|X-51|<3)=P(-3<X-51<3)=P(48<X<54)=\boxed{0.682}\quad(3\text{ s.f.}).

This is exactly the interval in(i). Its centre is 51, while the distribution mean is 50; do not replace it by a symmetric interval about 50.

How did this part go?

Compare your sketch

Expand diagram

Use the scrollbars or arrow keys to inspect details.

Four normal areas for X with mean 50 variance 8. (i) interval 48 to 54, (ii) right of 55, (iii) left of 52, (iv) |X−51|<3 gives the same 48 to 54 interval as(i). The mean 50 is marked; the interval in(iv) is centred at 51, not 50.
Four normal areas for X with mean 50 variance 8. (i) interval 48 to 54, (ii) right of 55, (iii) left of 52, (iv) |X−51|<3 gives the same 48 to 54 interval as(i). The mean 50 is marked; the interval in(iv) is centred at 51, not 50.
Four normal areas for X with mean 50 variance 8. (i) interval 48 to 54, (ii) right of 55, (iii) left of 52, (iv) |X−51|<3 gives the same 48 to 54 interval as(i). The mean 50 is marked; the interval in(iv) is centred at 51, not 50.

Common mistakes

Use σ=√8, not 8. Match the shaded side to the calculator limits. A modulus event is centred at the number inside the modulus, which need not be the mean. Large finite tail bounds are numerical substitutes for infinity in this example.

Read the hint