Worked solution
Reverse the conditioning in a dice table
A fair die is thrown twice. Find the probability that (i) the total score is 6, (ii) the first throw is even, (iii) the total score is 6 given that the first throw is even, (iv) the first throw is even given that the total score is 6.
CJC · Lecture · Example 4
(i) Read the five total-six cells
Use 36 equally likely ordered pairs. The first throw labels columns and the second labels rows; each table entry is their sum. Total 6 occurs at (1,5),(2,4),(3,3),(4,2),(5,1), so . The four displayed panels retain every sum-table entry and its relevant shading.
(ii) Count the even-first columns
Columns 2,4,6 each contain 6 outcomes, giving 18 in total. Hence .
(iii) Method 1: use the conditional formula
The two outcomes satisfying both conditions are (2,4) and (4,2), so the numerator from the outcome table is 2/36. The denominator is the result 1/2 from part (ii). Thus . The source recommends this probability formula.
(iii) Method 2: choose the reference set before the event
First identify the 18 even-first outcomes as the reduced sample space. Then mark the 2 total-six outcomes within it. Therefore the count ratio is 2/18=1/9. Follow the Teacher guidance: identify the reference set first, then its favourable subset. In the diagram grey/yellow marks the reference set and yellow marks favourable cells. Counting works here because those 18 outcomes are equally likely; it is not a universal shortcut for arbitrary outcome spaces.
(iv) Method 1: change the denominator
The overlap is still 2/36, but the condition is now total six, with probability 5/36 from part (i). Hence , incorporating the Teacher completion.
(iv) Method 2: restrict to the five total-six cells
First identify the 5 total-six outcomes as the reference set, then the 2 even-first outcomes among them. The reduced-space count is 2/5. The same overlap produces a different conditional probability because the reference set changed.
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Common mistakes
Do not swap the given event and the desired event: the numerators agree but the denominators 18 and 5 differ. Table entries are sums; ordered cells, not distinct sums, are the equally likely outcomes. Assume independent repeated rolls of the fair die.