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Worked solution

Choose the regression direction for an inverse prediction

A new drug developed to reduce a smoker’s reliance on nicotine may reduce one’s pulse rate to dangerously low levels. To investigate the drug’s effect on pulse rate, different dosages of the drug were administered to six smokers, and the decrease in each smoker’s pulse rate was recorded 30 minutes later.

Smoker123456
Drug dosage (x cm3x\ \mathrm{cm}^3)2.01.53.02.54.03.5
Decrease in pulse rate (yy beats per minute)14918162120

(i) Draw a scatter diagram to illustrate the data. mark

(ii) Calculate the product moment correlation coefficient between xx and yy, and explain why its value does not necessarily mean that the best model for the relationship between xx and yy is y=a+bxy=a+bx. marks

(iii) It is proposed that the decrease in pulse rate can be modelled by the formula y=ln⁡(cxd)y=\ln(cx^d), where cc and dd are constants. Explain why this is a better model. mark

(iv) Calculate the least-squares estimates of cc and dd for the model in (iii). marks

(v) Use a regression line to give the best estimate that you can of the dosage of drug administered when the decrease in pulse rate is 25 beats per minute. Comment on the reliability of your answer. marks

[2013/NJC/II/9]

CJC · Review problems · Question 6

Answer

rx,y=0.969r_{x,y}=0.969, rln⁡x,y=0.992r_{\ln x,y}=0.992; c=127c=127, d=12.0d=12.0. Reverse-regression estimate: 5.32 cm35.32\ \mathrm{cm}^3; printed forward-model inversion: 5.38 cm35.38\ \mathrm{cm}^3. Both are extrapolations.

(i) Scatter diagram

Plot all six pairs with dosage xx horizontally and pulse-rate decrease yy vertically. The increasing pattern bends downwards; see the comparison sketch.

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(ii) Raw correlation

rx,y=0.9691927765≈0.969r_{x,y}=0.9691927765\approx0.969. A value close to 1 does not exclude curvature: the scatter indicates an increasing relationship with a decreasing gradient.

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(iii) Logarithmic model

y=ln⁡(cxd)=ln⁡c+dln⁡xy=\ln(cx^d)=\ln c+d\ln x. The correlation of ln⁡x\ln x and yy is 0.9923885447≈0.9920.9923885447\approx0.992, closer to 1 than the raw value. This and the decreasing-gradient pattern support the transformed model.

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(iv) Fit the model

Regress yy on u=ln⁡xu=\ln x to obtain y=4.841951669+11.98564439uy=4.841951669+11.98564439u. Therefore ln⁡c=4.841951669\ln c=4.841951669, so c=e4.841951669≈127c=e^{4.841951669}\approx127; d=11.98564439≈12.0d=11.98564439\approx12.0 (3 s.f.).

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(v) Predict dosage and compare the source method

To estimate xx from a given yy by regression, fit u=ln⁡xu=\ln x on yy, not yy on uu. The line is u=−0.3833133126+0.08216788280yu=-0.3833133126+0.08216788280y. At y=25y=25, x^=e−0.3833133126+0.08216788280(25)=5.31686454≈5.32 cm3\hat x=e^{-0.3833133126+0.08216788280(25)}=5.31686454\approx5.32\ \mathrm{cm}^3. The printed solution instead solves 25=4.84195+11.98564ln⁡x25=4.84195+11.98564\ln x, giving x=5.38 cm3x=5.38\ \mathrm{cm}^3. That is inversion of the forward fitted model, not the reverse least-squares regression; the two predictions differ because ∣r∣<1|r|<1. Both extrapolate beyond the observed decrease range [9,21][9,21] and are unreliable.

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Compare your sketch

Expand diagram

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Scatter diagram for Question 6: Drug dosage x (cm³) horizontally, Pulse-rate decrease y (beats/min) vertically. All 6 pairs from the question table are plotted.
Scatter diagram for Question 6: Drug dosage x (cm³) horizontally, Pulse-rate decrease y (beats/min) vertically. All 6 pairs from the question table are plotted.
Scatter diagram for Question 6: Drug dosage x (cm³) horizontally, Pulse-rate decrease y (beats/min) vertically. All 6 pairs from the question table are plotted.

Common mistakes

Algebraically reversing one least-squares line does not produce the other least-squares line. Retain the printed 5.38 result as a source method, alongside its qualification.

Solution notes

Source-method discrepancy in(v): source inverts the y-on-ln(x) fit. The student explanation distinguishes this from ln(x)-on-y regression, independently checked at 5.31686454. No source result is silently replaced. This is a mathematical data exercise.

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