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Worked solution

Draw a logarithmic pattern and regress mass on time

(a) Sketch a scatter diagram that might be expected for the case when xx and yy are related approximately by y=a+bln⁡xy=a+b\ln x, where aa is positive and bb is negative. In this case, your diagram should include 6 points, approximately equally spaced with respect to xx, and with all xx- and yy-values positive. mark

(b) The mass, xx grams, of a certain substance present in a chemical reaction varies with time, tt seconds. Observations at successive times give the data shown in the following table.

Time, tt5152025303540
Mass, xx4.57.98.79.610.811.311.9

(i) Draw a scatter diagram for these values, labelling the axes. mark

(ii) Calculate the product moment correlation coefficient between tt and xx and comment on its value in context of the data. marks

(iii) State, with a reason, the effect on the product moment correlation coefficient found in part (ii) if the mass was recorded in milligrams instead of grams. mark

(iv) State, with a reason, which least squares regression line should be used to express a possible linear relation between xx and tt. Hence find the equation of a suitable regression line for this model. marks

(v) Use the equation of your regression line to estimate the mass of the certain substance present at 10 seconds and comment on the reliability of your estimate. marks

[2017/MI/MYE/J2/10]

CJC · Review problems · Question 8

Answer

(a) Six positive, equally spaced-in-x points decreasing and flattening. (b) r=0.979r=0.979, unchanged by grams→milligrams; x=0.206t+4.25x=0.206t+4.25. At 10 s, retained-precision estimate 6.306.30g (source: 6.316.31g).

(a) A possible six-point sketch

For y=a+bln⁡xy=a+b\ln x with b<0b<0, dy/dx=b/x<0dy/dx=b/x<0 and d2y/dx2=−b/x2>0d^2y/dx^2=-b/x^2>0. Draw six positive points with equally spaced horizontal coordinates, decreasing steeply at first and then flattening. One illustrative choice is x=1,2,3,4,5,6x=1,2,3,4,5,6 and y=8−2ln⁡xy=8-2\ln x, all positive. These are authored example coordinates, not an extra printed table.

Six illustrative positive points with equally spaced x=1 through 6, decreasing and flattening according to y=8−2ln(x).

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(b)(i) Plot the measured data

Plot all seven table pairs with time tt in seconds horizontally and mass xx in grams vertically. The comparison sketch below is for these measured data, distinct from the illustrative sketch in(a).

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(b)(ii) Correlation in context

rt,x=0.9792220385≈0.979r_{t,x}=0.9792220385\approx0.979. There is a strong positive linear association between elapsed time and mass in this sample.

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(b)(iii) Convert grams to milligrams

Multiplying every mass by the positive factor 1000 leaves rr unchanged. Its value does not depend on a positive change of measurement scale.

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(b)(iv) Select the regression direction

Time is the controlled explanatory variable, and mass is the response to estimate. Regress xx on tt: x=4.248360656+0.2056557377tx=4.248360656+0.2056557377t, or x=0.206t+4.25x=0.206t+4.25 (3 s.f.).

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(b)(v) Predict using retained precision

At t=10t=10, the unrounded line gives x^=4.248360656+0.2056557377(10)=6.304918033\hat x=4.248360656+0.2056557377(10)=6.304918033 g, which is 6.306.30 g (3 s.f.). The printed answer is 6.316.31 g; rounding coefficients first gives 6.3056.305 from the printed 5-s.f. line, or 6.316.31 from the 3-s.f. line 0.206t+4.250.206t+4.25. Retaining full precision avoids this double-rounding difference. Both source result and rounding distinction are recorded. Since 10 lies within [5,40][5,40] and rr is close to 1, this is a reasonable interpolated estimate under the linear model.

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Compare your sketch

Expand diagram

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Scatter diagram for Question 8: Time t (seconds) horizontally, Mass x (grams) vertically. All 7 pairs from the question table are plotted.
Scatter diagram for Question 8: Time t (seconds) horizontally, Mass x (grams) vertically. All 7 pairs from the question table are plotted.
Scatter diagram for Question 8: Time t (seconds) horizontally, Mass x (grams) vertically. All 7 pairs from the question table are plotted.

Common mistakes

Keep full calculator coefficients until the final answer: the 3-s.f. equation changes the 3-s.f. prediction here.

Solution notes

Q8 source rounding discrepancy: exact least squares predicts 6.304918033, hence 6.30 g(3 sf). The printed 5 sf coefficients .20566 and 4.2484 give 6.305, at the 3 sf rounding threshold; its 3 sf line .206t+4.25 gives 6.31. This explains the source 6.31 through coefficient rounding. Student explanation retains both and identifies the precision effect.

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