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Worked solution

Separate a large-sample test from a known-variance test

A virologist claims that due to the introduction of vaccine, the recovery period from a certain type of flu-like virus is on average 7 days. However, an analyst who works with such patients on a day-to-day basis believes that the average recovery period quoted by the virologist is understated.

He carries out a survey to investigate this by recording the recovery period of 120 randomly chosen patients. The recovery period of each of these 120 patients are denoted by xx days. The summarised results are given by

∑(x−7)=24,∑(x−7)2=14908.\sum(x-7)=24,\qquad\sum(x-7)^2=14908.

(i) Explain in context, the meaning of a random sample of 120 patients. mark

(ii) Calculate the unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance of the recovery period of the patients. marks

(iii) Carry out a test at 5% significance level, on the claim that the average recovery period of 7 days is understated. marks

(iv) Explain if the test in part (iii) would still be valid if the analyst had asked for recovery periods from a random sample of 15 patients. mark

(v) Suppose instead, the analyst wants to test if the average recovery period differs from 7 days. The analyst collects data from another random sample of 120 patients. Given that the population standard deviation is now known to be 1 day, find the range of values of the sample mean, xˉ\bar x, such that the null hypothesis is rejected at 1% level of significance. marks

[2022/CJC/II/12]

CJC · Review problems · Question 9

Answer

xˉ=7.2\bar x=7.2, s2=125.2369748s^2=125.2369748; upper-tail p=0.4224p=0.4224: do not reject. With known SD 1 day, reject the new two-sided test for 0≤xˉ≤6.7648600310\le\bar x\le 6.764860031 or xˉ≥7.235139969\bar x\ge 7.235139969.

(i) Random selection in context

Choose the 120 patients by chance from the relevant patient population, giving each eligible patient an equal chance of inclusion rather than selecting conveniently available patients. In a simple random sample without replacement, every group of 120 has the same chance of selection. The source’s phrase “equal and independent chance” describes its intended random selection; without-replacement inclusion events are not literally independent.

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(ii) Estimate the moments

xˉ=7+24/120=7.2\bar x=7+24/120=7.2 days. The unbiased variance estimate is s2=14908−242/120119=125.2369748≈125 days2.\begin{aligned}&s^2\\ & =\frac{14908-24^2/120}{119}\\ & =125.2369748\approx 125\ \mathrm{days}^2.\end{aligned}

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(iii) Test for an understated mean, both methods

Let μ\mu be the population mean recovery period in days. Test H0:μ=7H_0:\mu=7 against H1:μ>7H_1:\mu>7. Under H0H_0, for n 120 use Xˉ≈N(7,125.2369748/120)\bar X\approx N(7,125.2369748/120) by the CLT. Then z=0.1957736936z=0.1957736936 and upper-tail p=0.4223936506>0.05p=0.4223936506>0.05. Do not reject: insufficient evidence at 5% that 7 days understates the mean. Equivalently z<1.644853627z<1.644853627, so the critical-value method gives the same conclusion. Source p.422393669 agrees to calculator precision.

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(iv) Explain the smaller-sample limitation

Not on the information given. With only 15 patients and no normal population assumption, the source’s large-sample normal approximation is not justified. This does not rule out every possible small-sample method; it means this test needs additional assumptions or a suitable alternative.

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(v) Known population standard deviation

For the new n 120 sample, test H0:μ=7H_0:\mu=7 against H1:μ≠7H_1:\mu\ne 7 with known σ=1\sigma=1 day. Under H0H_0, use Xˉ≈N(7,1/120)\bar X\approx N(7,1/120). Rejection at 1% requires ∣xˉ−71/120∣≥2.575829304.\left|\frac{\bar x-7}{1/\sqrt{120}}\right|\ge 2.575829304. Therefore 0≤xˉ≤6.7648600310\le\bar x\le 6.764860031 or xˉ≥7.235139969\bar x\ge 7.235139969 days. The lower bound 0 comes from nonnegative recovery periods. Source 6.76/7.24 are rounded boundary labels, not exact replacements for the interval endpoints.

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Common mistakes

A large p-value does not establish the claimed mean. Retain nonnegative support and unrounded endpoints when stating the final set.

Solution notes

Source normal-approximation result and known-variance thresholds agree. Its rounded 6.76/7.24 boundaries are qualified; random-selection independence is distinguished from simple random sampling without replacement. Original wording remains in the native transcription.

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