Worked solution
Keep a strict probability condition strict at the quantile boundary
On Crabby Island, a kelong rears Hairy Crabs with mass kg. Given , state μ. mark
(i) Show that σ=2.27. marks
(ii) For 4 random Hairy Crabs, find the probability that two weigh between 1.5 and 3.5 kg each and the other two exceed 3.5 kg each. marks
Flower Crab mass has an independent normal distribution with mean 3.2 kg and standard deviation 1.3 kg. Find the largest a such that the probability the average mass of 2 Hairy and 3 Flower Crabs exceeds a kg is more than 0.6. marks
[2009/NJC/II/12(part of)]
CJC · Review problems · Question 5
Answer
μ=2.5 kg; σ≈2.27 kg; (ii)0.0755; final a<q≈2.721 kg with no largest real a. Source rounded answer:2.72 kg.
Use equal-tail symmetry for the mean
kg because the normal distribution is symmetric.
(i) Standardise the lower-tail cutoff
gives . The source quantile is , so σ≈2.27 kg. It retains for later working.
(ii) Count two crabs in each required category
Under independent selected crabs, the required probability is to 3 significant figures. The source calls these observations X₁,…,X₄; they are observations of H.
Model the five-crab average
Let and . Then and . Thus , using the source working precision.
Distinguish the printed answer from the literal strict condition
means , hence . Therefore a must be strictly below the 40 th-percentile boundary q≈2.721 kg. The source changes<to≤ and reports “largest a=2.72” to 3 significant figures. Its reported 2.72 kg is feasible, but there is no largest real a under the printed strict condition: the admissible set is a<q, with supremum q. If a is restricted to a 0.01 kg grid, the largest feasible grid value is 2.72 kg.
Common mistakes
Do not replace “more than 0.6” by “at least 0.6”. A rounded feasible value is not a largest real value.
Solution notes
All initial/numbered/final asks and marks, full standardisation, category product/orderings, all average moment terms and printed boundary/rounded result retained. Strict-inequality source slip qualified: no largest real solution; source 2.72 remains labelled and is a feasible 0.01-grid maximum. Independent selected-crab model explicit.