Porisma

Worked solution

Keep a strict probability condition strict at the quantile boundary

On Crabby Island, a kelong rears Hairy Crabs with mass H∼N(μ,σ2)H\sim N(\mu,\sigma^2) kg. Given P(H<1.5)=P(H>3.5)=0.33P(H<1.5)=P(H>3.5)=0.33, state μ. mark

(i) Show that σ=2.27. marks

(ii) For 4 random Hairy Crabs, find the probability that two weigh between 1.5 and 3.5 kg each and the other two exceed 3.5 kg each. marks

Flower Crab mass has an independent normal distribution with mean 3.2 kg and standard deviation 1.3 kg. Find the largest a such that the probability the average mass of 2 Hairy and 3 Flower Crabs exceeds a kg is more than 0.6. marks

[2009/NJC/II/12(part of)]

CJC · Review problems · Question 5

Answer

μ=2.5 kg; σ≈2.27 kg; (ii)0.0755; final a<q≈2.721 kg with no largest real a. Source rounded answer:2.72 kg.

Use equal-tail symmetry for the mean

μ=(1.5+3.5)/2=2.5\mu=(1.5+3.5)/2=2.5 kg because the normal distribution is symmetric.

How did this part go?

(i) Standardise the lower-tail cutoff

P(H<1.5)=0.33P(H<1.5)=0.33 gives P((H−2.5)/σ<(1.5−2.5)/σ)=P(Z<−1/σ)=0.33P((H-2.5)/\sigma<(1.5-2.5)/\sigma)=P(Z<-1/\sigma)=0.33. The source quantile is −1/σ=−0.43991-1/\sigma=-0.43991, so σ≈2.27 kg. It retains H∼N(2.5,2.27322)H\sim N(2.5,2.2732^2) for later working.

How did this part go?

(ii) Count two crabs in each required category

Under independent selected crabs, the required probability is P(1.5<H1<3.5)P(1.5<H2<3.5)P(H3>3.5)P(H4>3.5)(4!/(2!2!))=(1−0.33−0.33)2(0.33)2(4!/(2!2!))=0.0755P(1.5<H_1<3.5)P(1.5<H_2<3.5)P(H_3>3.5)P(H_4>3.5)(4!/(2!2!))=(1-0.33-0.33)^2(0.33)^2(4!/(2!2!))=0.0755 to 3 significant figures. The source calls these observations X₁,…,X₄; they are observations of H.

How did this part go?

Model the five-crab average

Let F∼N(3.2,1.32)F\sim N(3.2,1.3^2) and A=(H1+H2+F1+F2+F3)/5A=(H_1+H_2+F_1+F_2+F_3)/5. Then E(A)=(2.5+2.5+3.2+3.2+3.2)/5=2.92E(A)=(2.5+2.5+3.2+3.2+3.2)/5=2.92 and Var⁡(A)=(1/5)2(2.27322+2.27322+1.32+1.32+1.32)≈0.61620\operatorname{Var}(A)=(1/5)^2(2.2732^2+2.2732^2+1.3^2+1.3^2+1.3^2)\approx0.61620. Thus A∼N(2.92,0.61620)A\sim N(2.92,0.61620), using the source working precision.

How did this part go?

Distinguish the printed answer from the literal strict condition

P(A>a)>0.6P(A>a)>0.6 means 1−P(A≤a)>0.61-P(A\le a)>0.6, hence P(A≤a)<0.4P(A\le a)<0.4. Therefore a must be strictly below the 40 th-percentile boundary q≈2.721 kg. The source changes<to≤ and reports “largest a=2.72” to 3 significant figures. Its reported 2.72 kg is feasible, but there is no largest real a under the printed strict condition: the admissible set is a<q, with supremum q. If a is restricted to a 0.01 kg grid, the largest feasible grid value is 2.72 kg.

How did this part go?

Common mistakes

Do not replace “more than 0.6” by “at least 0.6”. A rounded feasible value is not a largest real value.

Solution notes

All initial/numbered/final asks and marks, full standardisation, category product/orderings, all average moment terms and printed boundary/rounded result retained. Strict-inequality source slip qualified: no largest real solution; source 2.72 remains labelled and is a feasible 0.01-grid maximum. Independent selected-crab model explicit.

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