Porisma

Worked solution

Square the coefficient of a two-packet total and retain both tails

Fettuccine packet mass is normal with mean 450 g and standard deviation σg.10% weigh at most 437 g.

(i) Find σ. marks

Spaghetti packet masses follow N(500,9.22)N(500,9.2^2). Thomas buys six spaghetti packets and two fettuccine packets.

(ii) Find the probability that the total spaghetti mass differs from twice the two-packet fettuccine total by at least 1250 g. marks

(iii) State an assumption needed in(ii). mark

[2020/SAJC/Prelim/11(part)]

CJC · Review problems · Question 11

Answer

(i)σ≈10.1 g (3 s.f.); (ii)0.0853 (3 s.f.); (iii)all packet masses independent.

(i) Standardise the fettuccine lower-tail condition

For F∼N(450,σ2)F\sim N(450,\sigma^2), P(F≤437)=0.1P(F\le437)=0.1 gives P((F−450)/σ≤(437−450)/σ)=P(Z≤−13/σ)=0.1P((F-450)/\sigma\le(437-450)/\sigma)=P(Z\le-13/\sigma)=0.1. The source uses −13/σ=−1.2816-13/\sigma=-1.2816, obtaining σ≈10.144 g and reporting 10.1 g to 3 significant figures.

How did this part go?

(ii) Define the absolute difference event

Let S∼N(500,9.22)S\sim N(500,9.2^2) and use F∼N(450,10.1442)F\sim N(450,10.144^2) at the source working precision. Put A=S1+S2+S3+S4+S5+S6−2(F1+F2)A=S_1+S_2+S_3+S_4+S_5+S_6-2(F_1+F_2). The requested probability is P(∣A∣≥1250)P(|A|\ge1250), not just a one-sided tail.

How did this part go?

(ii) Calculate the mean in the same stages

E(A)=E(S1+⋯+S6)−2E(F1+F2)=6E(S)−2(2)E(F)=6(500)−4(450)=1200E(A)=E(S_1+\cdots+S_6)-2E(F_1+F_2)=6E(S)-2(2)E(F)=6(500)-4(450)=1200.

How did this part go?

(ii) Calculate the variance in the same stages

Independence gives Var⁡(A)=Var⁡(S1+⋯+S6)+4Var⁡(F1+F2)=6Var⁡(S)+4(2)Var⁡(F)=6(9.22)+8(10.1442)≈1331.045\operatorname{Var}(A)=\operatorname{Var}(S_1+\cdots+S_6)+4\operatorname{Var}(F_1+F_2)=6\operatorname{Var}(S)+4(2)\operatorname{Var}(F)=6(9.2^2)+8(10.144^2)\approx1331.045. Thus A∼N(1200,1331.045)A\sim N(1200,1331.045) at the source working precision.

How did this part go?

(ii) Take the complement of the central interval

P(∣A∣≥1250)=1−P(−1250<A<1250)=0.085268≈0.0853P(|A|\ge1250)=1-P(-1250<A<1250)=0.085268\approx0.0853 to 3 significant figures. Absolute-value bars in both source probability lines are retained from the rendered pages.

How did this part go?

(iii) State independence of all packet masses

The mass of each packet, for both spaghetti and fettuccine, must be independent of every other packet’s mass. This is the source assumption allowing the individual variances to be added.

How did this part go?

Common mistakes

“Differs by at least” uses an absolute value and both tails, even when one tail is extremely small.

Solution notes

All asks/marks, every source standardisation/quantile, working-precision models, mean/variance stage, two-tail complement/decimals and independence statement retained. Absolute-value bars restored from images; no source mathematics inferred from extraction alone.

Read the hint