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Worked solution

Maximise a normal interval probability by choosing its mean

The random variable RR is normally distributed such that R∼N(μ,16)R\sim N(\mu,16). Find the maximum possible value of P(−3.74≤R≤5.82)P(-3.74\le R\le5.82).

CJC · Lecture · Review Question 12

Answer

Maximum probability 2Φ(1.195)−1≈0.7682\Phi(1.195)-1\approx0.768, attained at μ=1.04\mu=1.04.

Centre the fixed interval on the normal mean

The variance is 16, so the standard deviation is 4. A normal density is symmetric and strictly decreases away from its mean. Among intervals of this fixed width, the probability is greatest when the endpoints are equally distant from the mean. Thus choose μ=(−3.74+5.82)/2=1.04\mu=(-3.74+5.82)/2=1.04; the half-width is 4.78.

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Verify that the midpoint is the global maximum

Independently, write g(μ)=Φ((5.82−μ)/4)−Φ((−3.74−μ)/4)g(\mu)=\Phi((5.82-\mu)/4)-\Phi((-3.74-\mu)/4), where Φ\Phi is the standard-normal CDF and ϕ\phi its density. Then g′(μ)=[ϕ((−3.74−μ)/4)−ϕ((5.82−μ)/4)]/4g^{\prime}(\mu)=[\phi((-3.74-\mu)/4)-\phi((5.82-\mu)/4)]/4. This derivative is positive for μ<1.04\mu<1.04, zero at 1.04 and negative for μ>1.04\mu>1.04, proving the global maximum.

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Evaluate the maximum probability

At μ=1.04\mu=1.04, standardising gives P(−1.195≤Z≤1.195)=2Φ(1.195)−1≈0.7679129699P(-1.195\le Z\le1.195)=2\Phi(1.195)-1\approx0.7679129699. The source short answer is 0.768, consistent with three-significant-figure rounding. The source prints no separate rounding requirement; the derivation and fuller decimal here are independently authored.

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Normal density with mean 1.04 and standard deviation 4. The fixed interval [−3.74,5.82] is centred on the mean, with equal endpoint distances 4.78, maximising its probability to about 0.768.
Normal density with mean 1.04 and standard deviation 4. The fixed interval [−3.74,5.82] is centred on the mean, with equal endpoint distances 4.78, maximising its probability to about 0.768.
Normal density with mean 1.04 and standard deviation 4. The fixed interval [−3.74,5.82] is centred on the mean, with equal endpoint distances 4.78, maximising its probability to about 0.768.

Common mistakes

16 is the variance, so divide distances by 4 when standardising. The midpoint is the maximising mean; the requested answer is the resulting probability.

Solution notes

Both lecture copies print only the ask and short answer 0.768. Intermediate proof and diagram are independently authored. This lecture-only Review 12 has no corresponding entry in the separate Review Problems Solution PDF.

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