A hint to get started
Separate dependent sets from independent repeated matches
A and B play a racquet match of at most 3 sets. The first to win two sets wins. A wins the first set with probability 0.6. After the first set, A wins the next set with probability p given A won the preceding set; B wins the next set with probability 0.7 given B won the preceding set.
Find, in terms of p, the probability that A wins the match.
(i) The probability B won the first set given B lost the match is 0.15. Find p. marks
(ii) Given instead p=0.65 and that A’s third win occurs in the nth match with probability 0.10866 correct to 5 significant figures, write an equation for n and solve it numerically. marks
[2014/NYJC/II/6]
CJC · Review problems · Question 12
For the third win at match n, reserve the final win and select the two earlier winning positions.