Porisma

Worked solution

Condition the multi-pack card sample on its suit counts

A set of 40 cards is assembled from several ordinary packs, with counts:

RankSpadesHeartsDiamondsClubs
King3264
Queen4541
Jack1325

For example, there are 4 Kings of Clubs and 3 Jacks of Hearts. Three cards are drawn at random without replacement.

(i) Find the probability they are three Kings, three Queens or three Jacks. marks

(ii) Given two Spades and one Diamond are drawn, find the probability they are three Kings, three Queens or three Jacks. For example, two Kings of Spades and one King of Diamonds qualify. marks

[2014/TPJC/II/8]

CJC · Review problems · Question 16

Answer

(i) 123/1235123/1235; (ii) 1/81/8.

Retain the complete source augmented table

RankSpadesHeartsDiamondsClubsTotal
King326415
Queen454114
Jack132511
Total810121040

The grand total 40 completes the source row/column totals. Physical copies are distinct in the random sampling, even when their suit/rank labels match.

How did this part go?

(i) Source method 1: add three ordered rank-path products

The all-King, all-Queen and all-Jack events are disjoint: P=(15/40)(14/39)(13/38)+(14/40)(13/39)(12/38)+(11/40)(10/39)(9/38)=123/1235P=(15/40)(14/39)(13/38)+(14/40)(13/39)(12/38)+(11/40)(10/39)(9/38)=123/1235.

How did this part go?

(i) Source method 2: unordered selections

P=[(153)+(143)+(113)]/(403)=(455+364+165)/9880=123/1235P=[\binom{15}3+\binom{14}3+\binom{11}3]/\binom{40}3=(455+364+165)/9880=123/1235.

How did this part go?

(ii) Source method 1: a conditional quotient of ordered products

Only King or Queen paths can qualify: there is only one Jack of Spades, so two Jack Spades are impossible. In one suit order the two King Spades/King Diamond path is (3/40)(2/39)(6/38)(3/40)(2/39)(6/38), and the Queen path is (4/40)(3/39)(4/38)(4/40)(3/39)(4/38). Each has 3!/2!3!/2! suit orders. The conditioning event has probability (8/40)(7/39)(12/38)(3!/2!)(8/40)(7/39)(12/38)(3!/2!). Thus

P=(3/40)(2/39)(6/38)(3!/2!)+(4/40)(3/39)(4/38)(3!/2!)(8/40)(7/39)(12/38)(3!/2!)=1/8.\begin{aligned}&P\\ & =\frac{(3/40)(2/39)(6/38)(3!/2!)+(4/40)(3/39)(4/38)(3!/2!)}{(8/40)(7/39)(12/38)(3!/2!)}\\ & =1/8.\end{aligned}

How did this part go?

(ii) Source method 2: count within the reduced suit sample space

The conditioned sample space has (82)(121)=336\binom82\binom{12}1=336 equally likely physical-card selections. The favourable ones are (32)(61)=18\binom32\binom61=18 King selections and (42)(41)=24\binom42\binom41=24 Queen selections. Hence (18+24)/336=1/8(18+24)/336=1/8.

How did this part go?

Common mistakes

No all-Jack case survives the suit condition because the set contains only one Jack of Spades.

Solution notes

Every prompt/solution table cell and source row/column total retained, with explicitly completed grand total 40. Both printed methods in both parts, every sequential factor/order multiplier and the impossible Jack case retained. Original native text and marks 3,4 preserved.

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