Worked solution
Condition the multi-pack card sample on its suit counts
A set of 40 cards is assembled from several ordinary packs, with counts:
| Rank | Spades | Hearts | Diamonds | Clubs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| King | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Queen | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Jack | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
For example, there are 4 Kings of Clubs and 3 Jacks of Hearts. Three cards are drawn at random without replacement.
(i) Find the probability they are three Kings, three Queens or three Jacks. marks
(ii) Given two Spades and one Diamond are drawn, find the probability they are three Kings, three Queens or three Jacks. For example, two Kings of Spades and one King of Diamonds qualify. marks
[2014/TPJC/II/8]
CJC · Review problems · Question 16
Answer
(i) ; (ii) .
Retain the complete source augmented table
| Rank | Spades | Hearts | Diamonds | Clubs | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 15 |
| Queen | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| Jack | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| Total | 8 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 40 |
The grand total 40 completes the source row/column totals. Physical copies are distinct in the random sampling, even when their suit/rank labels match.
(i) Source method 1: add three ordered rank-path products
The all-King, all-Queen and all-Jack events are disjoint: .
(i) Source method 2: unordered selections
.
(ii) Source method 1: a conditional quotient of ordered products
Only King or Queen paths can qualify: there is only one Jack of Spades, so two Jack Spades are impossible. In one suit order the two King Spades/King Diamond path is , and the Queen path is . Each has suit orders. The conditioning event has probability . Thus
(ii) Source method 2: count within the reduced suit sample space
The conditioned sample space has equally likely physical-card selections. The favourable ones are King selections and Queen selections. Hence .
Common mistakes
No all-Jack case survives the suit condition because the set contains only one Jack of Spades.
Solution notes
Every prompt/solution table cell and source row/column total retained, with explicitly completed grand total 40. Both printed methods in both parts, every sequential factor/order multiplier and the impossible Jack case retained. Original native text and marks 3,4 preserved.