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Worked solution

Align clock times before comparing normal travel times

The last weekday train leaves Bedok at 11.29pm. Its travel time XX to Redbridge is normal with mean 30 minutes and variance 9.

(i) Find the travel time exceeded by 90% of trips. marks

At 11.40pm Abel starts walking to Redbridge; his walking time YY is normal with mean 16 minutes and variance 4.

(ii) Find the probability that the train arrives after midnight and Abel arrives before midnight. marks

(iii) Find the probability that Abel does not miss the train. marks

(iv) Explain why(iii) is greater than (ii). mark

Dina’s walking time WW has mean 4 minutes and variance 6.

(v) Explain why WW is unlikely to be normal. mark

(vi) For 40 random trips, find the probability that Dina’s sample mean is below 3.5 minutes. marks

[2010/RI(JC)/II/12]

CJC · Review problems · Question 6

Answer

(i) 26.226.2 min; (ii) 0.3610.361; (iii) 0.7970.797; (iv) proper event inclusion; (v) about 5.12%5.12\% negative times under a normal model; (vi) 0.09840.0984.

(i) Lower tenth percentile

P(X>t)=0.9P(X>t)=0.9 means P(X<t)=0.1P(X<t)=0.1. Since X∼N(30,9)X\sim N(30,9), t=30+3Φ−1(0.1)=26.1553…≈26.2t=30+3\Phi^{-1}(0.1)=26.1553\ldots\approx26.2 minutes, to 3 s.f.

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(ii) Midnight event

Midnight is 31 minutes after the train departs and 20 minutes after Abel starts. Using the independence assumed in the printed working, P(X>31,Y<20)=P(X>31)P(Y<20)≈0.361P(X>31,Y<20)=P(X>31)P(Y<20)\approx0.361.

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(iii) Catch the train

The departure times differ by 11 minutes. Abel arrives first when 11+Y<X11+Y<X, or X−Y>11X-Y>11. Under independence, X−Y∼N(30−16,9+4)=N(14,13)X-Y\sim N(30-16,9+4)=N(14,13), so P(X−Y>11)≈0.797P(X-Y>11)\approx0.797.

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(iv) Compare the events

The event in(ii) is contained in the catch-the-train event, but the latter also allows both arrivals before midnight or both after midnight with Abel first. The source gives a train after 12.01am with Abel before 12.01am as an example; cases where Abel arrives between midnight and 12.01am add possibilities absent from (ii). These extra events have positive probability.

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(v) Both source normal-model checks

A normal N(4,6)N(4,6) would put about 99.7% of its values within 4±364\pm3\sqrt6, a range extending well below zero. More directly, P(W<0)=Φ(−4/6)≈0.0512P(W<0)=\Phi(-4/\sqrt6)\approx0.0512. Roughly 5.12% impossible negative times makes this a poor normal model for the individual walking time.

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(vi) CLT for the mean of 40 trips

For independent identically distributed trips, Wˉ∼˙N(4,6/40)\bar W\mathrel{\dot\sim}N(4,6/40) by the CLT. Therefore P(Wˉ<3.5)≈Φ[−0.5/6/40]=0.0984P(\bar W<3.5)\approx\Phi[-0.5/\sqrt{6/40}]=0.0984, to 3 s.f.

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Common mistakes

The train starts 11 minutes before Abel. Independence is required for the source’s product probability and variance sum; it is an assumption, not stated explicitly in the prompt.

Solution notes

A close visual check confirms that the source writes the variance in(vi) as (√(6/40))², equal to 6/40. The extraction misplaces its radical/exponent; no printed variance error is asserted.

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