Porisma

Worked solution

Infer a normal standard deviation from symmetric tail areas

A Kranji farm sells chickens and ducks.

(a) Chicken mass has mean 2.5 kg and standard deviation 0.4 kg. If the probability that the mean of a large sample of nn chickens exceeds 2.45 kg is greater than 0.95, find the least nn. marks

(b) Duck mass XX kg is normal with mean 2.7 and standard deviation σ\sigma. Ducks cost $4 per kg. (i) Given P(X<2.5)=50107P(X<2.9) P(X<2.5)=\frac{50}{107}P(X<2.9), show that σ=0.424\sigma=0.424 to 3s.f. marks (ii) A housewife brings $ 50. Find the probability she has less than $27.50 after buying2 ducks. marks (iii) For 4 randomly chosen ducks, find the probability the most expensive costs less than $ 11. marks

[2010/RVHS/II/13]

CJC · Review problems · Question 7

Answer

(a) n=174n=174. (b)(i) σ≈0.424\sigma\approx0.424 kg; (ii) 0.3540.354; (iii) 0.08950.0895.

(a) Minimum chicken sample size

By the CLT, Cˉ∼˙N(2.5,0.42/n)\bar C\mathrel{\dot\sim}N(2.5,0.4^2/n) for a large independent sample. Require P(Z>−0.05n/0.4)>0.95P(Z>-0.05\sqrt n/0.4)>0.95, so 0.05n/0.4>Φ−1(0.95)≈1.644850.05\sqrt n/0.4>\Phi^{-1}(0.95)\approx1.64485. Thus n>173.1…n>173.1\ldots and the least integer is 174.

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(b)(i) Use symmetry and the source area diagram

Let a=P(X<2.5)a=P(X<2.5). The cutoffs 2.5 and 2.9 are equally spaced from the mean 2.7, so the right tail also has area aa, while P(X<2.9)=(107/50)aP(X<2.9)=(107/50)a. The middle area is [(107/50)−1]a[(107/50)-1]a. Hence a+[(107/50)−1]a+a=1a+[(107/50)-1]a+a=1, giving a=50/157a=50/157. Thus −0.2/σ=Φ−1(50/157)=−0.4719777448…-0.2/\sigma=\Phi^{-1}(50/157)=-0.4719777448\ldots, so σ=0.4237487952…≈0.424\sigma=0.4237487952\ldots\approx0.424 kg.

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(b)(ii) Cost of two ducks

Using the printed rounded σ=0.424\sigma=0.424, one duck’s cost is Y=4X∼N(10.8,42(0.424)2)=N(10.8,2.876416)Y=4X\sim N(10.8,4^2(0.424)^2)=N(10.8,2.876416). For independent ducks, Y1+Y2∼N(21.6,5.752832)Y_1+Y_2\sim N(21.6,5.752832). Having less than $27.50 left means spending more than $ 22.50, so the probability is P(Y1+Y2>22.50)≈0.354P(Y_1+Y_2>22.50)\approx0.354.

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(b)(iii) All four costs below the bound

The maximum cost is below 11 exactly when every duck costs below 11. Independence gives [P(Y<11)]4=[P(X<2.75)]4≈0.0895[P(Y<11)]^4=[P(X<2.75)]^4\approx0.0895. Carrying the unrounded σ\sigma gives about 0.0895024, which has the same printed 3 s.f. value.

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Compare your sketch

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Normal duck-mass curve centred at 2.7 kg, with symmetric cutoffs 2.5 and 2.9 kg. Both outside tails have area a; the shaded central region has area (107/50−1)a. The total gives a=50/157 and central area 57/157. The horizontal axis is labelled X.
Normal duck-mass curve centred at 2.7 kg, with symmetric cutoffs 2.5 and 2.9 kg. Both outside tails have area a; the shaded central region has area (107/50−1)a. The total gives a=50/157 and central area 57/157. The horizontal axis is labelled X.
Normal duck-mass curve centred at 2.7 kg, with symmetric cutoffs 2.5 and 2.9 kg. Both outside tails have area a; the shaded central region has area (107/50−1)a. The total gives a=50/157 and central area 57/157. The horizontal axis is labelled X.

Common mistakes

“Most expensive below 11” means all four are below 11. Use independent draws, and square monetary scale factors in variances.

Solution notes

The source defines chicken mass “in g” despite the question’s kg parameters. Authored working retains kg consistently; the original line is unchanged in the native source.

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