Porisma

Worked solution

Sketch possible correlations and model monthly earnings

(a) Eight pairs of measured values (x,y)(x,y) are given. Sketch a possible scatter diagram for each case: (i) correlation approximately zero; (ii) correlation approximately −0.8-0.8.

(b) Monthly earnings yy thousand dollars of seven workers of ages xx years are:

xxyy
182.55
202.65
222.85
273.15
354.76
455.45
556.26

(i) Sketch the scatter diagram as shown on your calculator.

(ii) Find the product moment correlation coefficient.

(iii) Find the regression of yy on xx as y=mx+cy=mx+c, with m,cm,c correct to 4 decimal places.

(iv) Estimate monthly earnings of a 40-year-old worker. State why you would expect the estimate to be reliable.

(v) Every worker receives an increase of NN thousand dollars per month. Without further calculations state the expected changes in mm and cc.

[2010/H1/I/11]

CJC · Discussion · Question 4

(a)(i) Give eight possible pairs with zero linear correlation

Answer

An eight-point symmetric curved scatter can have r=0r=0.

One authored construction uses x=1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8x=1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 and y=1,2,3,4,4,3,2,1y=1,2,3,4,4,3,2,1. The symmetric cross-products cancel, giving zero linear correlation. The arch still has a nonlinear pattern, so this does not assert no relationship or statistical independence. Other possible eight-point sketches are valid; these are not the source’s unprovided measured values.

How did this part go?

(a)(ii) Give eight possible pairs with negative correlation

Answer

Use eight points scattered about a falling line, with r≈−0.8r\approx-0.8.

The second panel is an independently constructed eight-point example whose coefficient was checked to be exactly −0.8. It has visible spread about a falling trend, rather than a perfect straight line. These illustrative coordinates are not claimed to be printed data; the source supplies only the target coefficient and point count.

How did this part go?

(b)(i) Plot the seven measured observations

Answer

The seven supplied pairs show a strong positive, approximately linear trend.

Keep age on the horizontal axis and monthly earnings in thousand dollars vertically. The third panel retains every pair and adds the full-precision regression line requested in (iii). The two illustrative eight-point panels in (a) are separate datasets and must not be substituted for these seven observations.

How did this part go?

(b)(ii) Calculate correlation

Answer

r=0.987r=0.987 (3 s.f.).

Using all seven age/earnings pairs gives the independently checked coefficient 0.9872953317…0.9872953317\ldots, matching the printed 0.9870.987. It summarises the strong positive linear pattern, not a universal age–income law.

How did this part go?

(b)(iii) Round both coefficients to four decimal places

Answer

y=0.1069x+0.5615y=0.1069x+0.5615.

The full fit is y=0.10693414634146342x+0.5615170731707311y=0.10693414634146342x+0.5615170731707311. Rounding the gradient and intercept to the requested 4 decimal places gives the printed equation. Keep full coefficients for the later prediction; the response remains in thousands of dollars.

How did this part go?

(b)(iv) Predict within the age range

Answer

Estimated monthly earnings: 4,840 dollars (3 s.f.).

At age 40, the full fit gives y=4.8388829268…y=4.8388829268\ldots thousand dollars, or 4838.8829 dollars. This rounds to the printed 4,840 dollars. Age 40 is within 18–55 and the scatter is approximately linear with high positive correlation. These support the model for a comparable worker, but do not guarantee an individual salary; the source asks for expected reliability, not certainty.

How did this part go?

(b)(v) Translate every response by the same amount

Answer

mm is unchanged; the new intercept is c+Nc+N.

Adding NN thousand dollars to every earnings value translates the entire scatter vertically. Relative vertical deviations and the fitted gradient are unchanged; each fitted response rises by NN, so only the intercept changes. No new regression calculation is needed. Keep NN in the same thousand-dollar units as yy.

How did this part go?

Compare your sketch

Expand diagram

Use the scrollbars or arrow keys to inspect details.

First two panels are explicitly authored possible eight-point datasets, not supplied observations: symmetric arch has zero linear correlation; second construction has correlation exactly −0.8. Third panel retains all seven actual age/earnings pairs 18/2.55,20/2.65,22/2.85,27/3.15,35/4.76,45/5.45,55/6.26, with full-precision earnings-on-age fitted line. All input axes are cropped and labelled.
First two panels are explicitly authored possible eight-point datasets, not supplied observations: symmetric arch has zero linear correlation; second construction has correlation exactly −0.8. Third panel retains all seven actual age/earnings pairs 18/2.55,20/2.65,22/2.85,27/3.15,35/4.76,45/5.45,55/6.26, with full-precision earnings-on-age fitted line. All input axes are cropped and labelled.
First two panels are explicitly authored possible eight-point datasets, not supplied observations: symmetric arch has zero linear correlation; second construction has correlation exactly −0.8. Third panel retains all seven actual age/earnings pairs 18/2.55,20/2.65,22/2.85,27/3.15,35/4.76,45/5.45,55/6.26, with full-precision earnings-on-age fitted line. All input axes are cropped and labelled.