Porisma

Worked solution

Combine a disc and a weighted die

An unbiased disc has a single dot marked on one side and two dots marked on the other side. A tetrahedral die has faces marked with score of 1, 2, 3, and 4. The probability of getting a score of 1, 2, 3, and 4 is 15,p,15\frac15,p,\frac15 and qq respectively, where p,q∈[0,1]p,q\in[0,1].

A game is played by throwing the disc and the die together. The random variable SS is the sum of the score showing on the die and twice the number of dots showing on the disc.

(i) Find P(S=6)P(S=6).

Given that P(S=4)=16P(S=4)=\frac16,

(ii) calculate the values of p and q, and

(iii) find the probability distribution of S.

[2017/PJC/II/6]

CJC · Discussion · Question 1

Answer

P(S=6)=3/10P(S=6)=3/10; p=1/3p=1/3, q=4/15q=4/15; distribution in the table.

Construct the joint outcome table

The source solution models the disc and die as independent. This vertical form retains every cell of its two-by-four outcome table.

Disc dotsDie scoreSProbability
1131/101/10
124p/2p/2
1351/101/10
146q/2q/2
2151/101/10
226p/2p/2
2371/101/10
248q/2q/2
How did this part go?

(i) Two normalisation methods

Method 1 uses the die probabilities: 1/5+p+1/5+q=11/5+p+1/5+q=1, so p+q=3/5p+q=3/5. Method 2 sums all eight joint cells: 1/10+p/2+1/10+q/2+1/10+p/2+1/10+q/2=11/10+p/2+1/10+q/2+1/10+p/2+1/10+q/2=1, giving the same relation. Hence

P(S=6)=p2+q2=12(p+q)=310.\begin{aligned}&P(S=6)\\ & =\frac p2+\frac q2\\ & =\frac12(p+q)\\ & =\frac3{10}.\end{aligned}

How did this part go?

(ii) Use the given probability

Only the one-dot/score-two cell gives S=4. Thus p/2=1/6p/2=1/6, so p=1/3p=1/3 and q=3/5−1/3=4/15q=3/5-1/3=4/15.

How did this part go?

(iii) Combine cells with equal S

sP(S=s)P(S=s)
31/101/10
41/61/6
51/51/5
63/103/10
71/101/10
82/152/15

The probabilities sum to one. S=5 and S=6 each collect two joint outcomes.

How did this part go?

Common mistakes

Different joint outcomes can contribute to the same total score.

Solution notes

Full joint table, both normalisation methods and full final distribution retained. The independent-device assumption used by the source is explicit.

Read the hint