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Worked solution

Count heads across the stopping rule before setting a fair fee

Two coins are tossed. If they show different faces, the game stops. If they show the same face, both are tossed again together with another coin, and the game stops after that round. X is the total number of heads obtained throughout the game.

(i) Show that P(X=2)=1/8P(X=2)=1/8.

(ii) Tabulate the probability distribution of X.

(iii) A player pays k dollars to play and receives one dollar for each head obtained. Find k for a fair game.

[2006/SAJC/II/23]

CJC · Discussion · Question 7

Answer

(i) 1/81/8; (ii) distribution above; (iii) k=7/4k=7/4, a fee of 1.75 dollars.

State the source coin model and retain the two-round notation

The source calculations assume fair, independent coin outcomes. H and T denote a head and tail. The first two outcomes belong to the initial round; any following three belong to the second round. They are not five successive rounds. Initial HH contributes two heads to the total even when the next round gives no heads.

How did this part go?

(i) Two heads in total

The paths are HH followed by TTT, or TT followed by two heads and one tail in any of 3!/2!=33!/2!=3 orders. Thus P(X=2)=(1/2)5+(3!/2!)(1/2)5=4/32=1/8P(X=2)=(1/2)^5+(3!/2!)(1/2)^5=4/32=1/8.

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(ii) Retain every remaining source outcome calculation

For zero heads, TT must be followed by TTT: P(X=0)=(1/2)5=1/32P(X=0)=(1/2)^5=1/32.

For one head, the initial round can stop with TH or HT, or TT can be followed by one head and two tails: P(X=1)=(1/2)2+(1/2)2+(3!/2!)(1/2)5=19/32P(X=1)=(1/2)^2+(1/2)^2+(3!/2!)(1/2)^5=19/32.

For three heads, TT can be followed by HHH, or HH by one head and two tails: P(X=3)=(1/2)5+(3!/2!)(1/2)5=1/8P(X=3)=(1/2)^5+(3!/2!)(1/2)^5=1/8.

For four heads, HH must be followed by two heads and one tail: P(X=4)=(3!/2!)(1/2)5=3/32P(X=4)=(3!/2!)(1/2)^5=3/32.

For five heads, HH must be followed by HHH: P(X=5)=(1/2)5=1/32P(X=5)=(1/2)^5=1/32.

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(ii) Complete distribution

xP(X=x)P(X=x)
01/321/32
119/3219/32
21/81/8
31/81/8
43/323/32
51/321/32
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(iii) Retain the source payout table

Let Y be the payout in dollars. Since each head earns one dollar, its distribution is

yP(Y=y)P(Y=y)
01/321/32
119/3219/32
21/81/8
31/81/8
43/323/32
51/321/32
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(iii) Equate the entry fee to the expected payout

E(Y)=0(1/32)+1(19/32)+2(1/8)+3(1/8)+4(3/32)+5(1/32)=56/32E(Y)=0(1/32)+1(19/32)+2(1/8)+3(1/8)+4(3/32)+5(1/32)=56/32. A fair game requires E(Y−k)=0E(Y-k)=0, so k=E(Y)=56/32=7/4k=E(Y)=56/32=7/4. The fee is 1.75 dollars.

How did this part go?

Common mistakes

X counts all heads across the game, including the first HH. The fair fee equals the expected payout, not the expected number of rounds.

Solution notes

All three asks, each source path and permutation factor, both head-count and payout tables, full expectation sum and fair-gain equation retained. Fair independent coins are the source calculation assumption and are stated explicitly. No marks printed.

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