Worked solution
Test the claimed bulb power and change the sample size
A manufacturer makes light bulbs with power normally distributed with mean 13 watts and standard deviation 2.716 watts. A sample of 50 bulbs has mean power 13.168 watts.
(i) Test at the 5% significance level whether the manufacturer is understating the mean power.
(ii) Explain “a 5% level of significance” in this context.
(iii) At the 10% significance level, what is the least sample size for concluding that the manufacturer has understated the mean power?
[2007/CJC/H1/9]
CJC · Discussion · Question 1
Answer
(i) Do not reject at 5% (). (ii) A 5% conditional Type I error rate. (iii) Minimum for the same observed mean.
(i) Null model and p-value method
Let be population mean power in watts. Treat 13 as the claimed null value to be tested: , . Under and independent normal sampling, exactly. Then . The upper-tail p-value is . Do not reject: there is insufficient evidence at 5% that the manufacturer understates the mean.
(i) Critical-value and calculator methods
The 5% upper critical value is . Reject for ; the observed 0.43739 lies outside the rejection tail. The source calculator uses Z-Test → Stats, , , , , alternative >, then Calculate. Its output , has the same printed conclusion.
(ii) Conditional false-positive probability
If the true population mean is 13 watts, applying this rule to repeated independent samples would wrongly conclude that the manufacturer understates the mean in 5% of cases. This is a conditional Type I error rate, not a 5% posterior probability that this conclusion or the null hypothesis is false.
(iii) Keep the hypothetical observed difference fixed
At 10%, use . For the same mean 13.168 and known SD 2.716, rejection needs , so and the least integer is 430. The source rounds the critical value to 1.2816 and the bound to 429.3, with the same integer. A new larger sample is not guaranteed to reproduce the old mean; this is a threshold calculation conditional on that mean, not a power calculation.
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Common mistakes
The stated mean 13 is the reference claim being tested. A significance level is not power, and increasing n does not guarantee rejection in a future random sample.