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Test the claimed bulb power and change the sample size

A manufacturer makes light bulbs with power normally distributed with mean 13 watts and standard deviation 2.716 watts. A sample of 50 bulbs has mean power 13.168 watts.

(i) Test at the 5% significance level whether the manufacturer is understating the mean power.

(ii) Explain “a 5% level of significance” in this context.

(iii) At the 10% significance level, what is the least sample size for concluding that the manufacturer has understated the mean power?

[2007/CJC/H1/9]

CJC · Discussion · Question 1

Answer

(i) Do not reject at 5% (p≈0.331p\approx0.331). (ii) A 5% conditional Type I error rate. (iii) Minimum n=430n=430 for the same observed mean.

(i) Null model and p-value method

Let μ\mu be population mean power in watts. Treat 13 as the claimed null value to be tested: H0:μ=13H_0:\mu=13, H1:μ>13H_1:\mu>13. Under H0H_0 and independent normal sampling, Xˉ∼N(13,2.7162/50)\bar X\sim N(13,2.716^2/50) exactly. Then z=(13.168−13)/(2.716/50)=0.4373856378z=(13.168-13)/(2.716/\sqrt{50})=0.4373856378. The upper-tail p-value is 1−Φ(z)=0.3309158491≈0.331>0.051-\Phi(z)=0.3309158491\approx0.331>0.05. Do not reject: there is insufficient evidence at 5% that the manufacturer understates the mean.

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(i) Critical-value and calculator methods

The 5% upper critical value is Φ−1(0.95)=1.644853627≈1.6449\Phi^{-1}(0.95)=1.644853627\approx1.6449. Reject for z≥1.644853627z\ge1.644853627; the observed 0.43739 lies outside the rejection tail. The source calculator uses Z-Test → Stats, μ0=13\mu_0=13, σ=2.716\sigma=2.716, xˉ=13.168\bar x=13.168, n=50n=50, alternative >, then Calculate. Its output z≈0.4373856378z\approx0.4373856378, p≈0.3309158761p\approx0.3309158761 has the same printed conclusion.

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(ii) Conditional false-positive probability

If the true population mean is 13 watts, applying this rule to repeated independent samples would wrongly conclude that the manufacturer understates the mean in 5% of cases. This is a conditional Type I error rate, not a 5% posterior probability that this conclusion or the null hypothesis is false.

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(iii) Keep the hypothetical observed difference fixed

At 10%, use z0.90=1.281551566z_{0.90}=1.281551566. For the same mean 13.168 and known SD 2.716, rejection needs 0.168n/2.716≥1.2815515660.168\sqrt n/2.716\ge1.281551566, so n≥429.2528020n\ge429.2528020 and the least integer is 430. The source rounds the critical value to 1.2816 and the bound to 429.3, with the same integer. A new larger sample is not guaranteed to reproduce the old mean; this is a threshold calculation conditional on that mean, not a power calculation.

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5% upper test: standard normal curve, right rejection tail area 0.05, critical z 1.644853627 and observed z 0.437385638. 10% upper test for sample size: standard normal curve, right rejection tail area 0.1, critical z 1.281551566.
5% upper test: standard normal curve, right rejection tail area 0.05, critical z 1.644853627 and observed z 0.437385638. 10% upper test for sample size: standard normal curve, right rejection tail area 0.1, critical z 1.281551566.
5% upper test: standard normal curve, right rejection tail area 0.05, critical z 1.644853627 and observed z 0.437385638. 10% upper test for sample size: standard normal curve, right rejection tail area 0.1, critical z 1.281551566.

Common mistakes

The stated mean 13 is the reference claim being tested. A significance level is not power, and increasing n does not guarantee rejection in a future random sample.

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