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Worked solution

Test standby time and compare significance statements

A random sample of 90 mobile-phone batteries has standby times xx hours summarized by ∑x=3040.8\sum x=3040.8 and ∑x2=115773.66\sum x^2=115773.66. Test at 1% whether the population mean standby time is less than 36.0 hours.

The same type is advertised as having talk-time 5 hours. A separate test at 5% finds significant evidence that population mean talk-time is less than 5 hours. Using only that information, classify each statement as necessarily true, necessarily false, or neither, giving reasons:

(a) There is significant evidence at 10% that the population mean talk-time is less than 5 hours.

(b) There is significant evidence at 5% that the population mean talk-time is not 5 hours.

[N2001/II/10]

CJC · Discussion · Question 4

Answer

Standby-time: do not reject at 1%, p≈0.0414p\approx0.0414. Talk-time: (a) necessarily true; (b) neither necessarily true nor necessarily false.

Standby-time estimates and null model

xˉ=3040.8/90=33.7866666667\bar x=3040.8/90=33.7866666667 and s2=115773.66−3040.82/9089=325879122250=146.4625168539.\begin{aligned}&s^2\\ & =\frac{115773.66-3040.8^2/90}{89}\\ & =\frac{3258791}{22250}\\ & =146.4625168539.\end{aligned} Test H0:μ=36H_0:\mu=36 against H1:μ<36H_1:\mu<36. For independent large-sample observations the source uses Xˉ≈N(36,s2/90)\bar X\approx N(36,s^2/90) by CLT with estimated variance, so its standardised statistic is approximately standard normal.

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Standby-time p-value, critical value and screen

z=(33.7866666667−36)/146.4625168539/90=−1.735021388z=(33.7866666667-36)/\sqrt{146.4625168539/90}=-1.735021388. The lower-tail p=0.04136850844≈0.0414>0.01p=0.04136850844\approx0.0414>0.01: do not reject. Equivalently, z>−2.326347874z>-2.326347874, the 1% lower critical value. There is insufficient evidence at 1% that mean standby time is below 36 h. The source screen enters μ0=36\mu_0=36, σ=12.10206593934\sigma=12.10206593934 from rounded variance 146.46, xˉ=33.787\bar x=33.787, n=90n=90, alternative <, producing z≈−1.734774996z\approx-1.734774996, p≈0.0413902936p\approx0.0413902936. Its hand calculation instead uses mean 33.78; these small premature-rounding differences leave the requested conclusion unchanged.

How did this part go?

(a) Necessarily true for the same one-sided test

For talk-time, H0:μ=5H_0:\mu=5, H1:μ<5H_1:\mu<5 has p≤0.05p\le0.05 by the given result. Therefore p≤0.05<0.10p\le0.05<0.10, so the same data/model/alternative also reject at 10%.

How did this part go?

(b) Neither necessarily true nor necessarily false

For the source’s symmetric continuous normal reference, the observed lower-tail statistic is negative and the two-sided p-value is 2p2p. The given p≤0.05p\le0.05 only gives 2p≤0.102p\le0.10, not 2p≤0.052p\le0.05. For example, one-sided p=0.02p=0.02 gives two-sided 0.04 and rejects at 5%; one-sided 0.04 gives two-sided 0.08 and does not. Changing the alternative changes the p-value; the standby-time test does not supply this talk-time p-value.

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Compare your sketch

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1% lower standby-time test: standard normal curve, left rejection tail area 0.01, critical z -2.326347874 and observed z -1.735021388.
1% lower standby-time test: standard normal curve, left rejection tail area 0.01, critical z -2.326347874 and observed z -1.735021388.
1% lower standby-time test: standard normal curve, left rejection tail area 0.01, critical z -2.326347874 and observed z -1.735021388.

Common mistakes

Use the same data, statistic and alternative when comparing significance levels. A 5% one-sided rejection need not be a 5% two-sided rejection.

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