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Worked solution

Preserve the absolute deviation when relating two normal tails

Independent X,Y have distributions N(2μ,σ2)N(2\mu,\sigma^2) and N(3μ,3σ2)N(3\mu,3\sigma^2) respectively, with σ>0. Let Z∼N(0,1)Z\sim N(0,1).

(i) Given P(X<2μ+2σ2)=kP(X<2\mu+2\sigma^2)=k, show that P(Z<2σ)=kP(Z<2\sigma)=k.

(ii) Write down the mean and variance of Y−X. Hence find P(∣Y−X−μ∣>4σ2)P(|Y-X-\mu|>4\sigma^2) in terms of k.

[2008/VJC/BT/II/14]

CJC · Discussion · Question 12

Answer

(i)P(Z<2σ)=kP(Z<2\sigma)=k; (ii)meanμ, variance 4σ², required probability 2(1−k)2(1-k).

(i) Centre and standardise the given event

P(X<2μ+2σ2)=P(X−2μ<2μ+2σ2−2μ)=P(X−2μ<2σ2)=P((X−2μ)/σ<2σ2/σ)=P(Z<2σ)=kP(X<2\mu+2\sigma^2)=P(X-2\mu<2\mu+2\sigma^2-2\mu)=P(X-2\mu<2\sigma^2)=P((X-2\mu)/\sigma<2\sigma^2/\sigma)=P(Z<2\sigma)=k.

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(ii) Mean, variance and distribution of the difference

E(Y−X)=E(Y)−E(X)=3μ−2μ=μE(Y-X)=E(Y)-E(X)=3\mu-2\mu=\mu. Independence gives Var⁡(Y−X)=Var⁡(Y)+Var⁡(X)=3σ2+σ2=(2σ)2\operatorname{Var}(Y-X)=\operatorname{Var}(Y)+\operatorname{Var}(X)=3\sigma^2+\sigma^2=(2\sigma)^2. Thus Y−X∼N(μ,(2σ)2)Y-X\sim N(\mu,(2\sigma)^2).

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(ii) Split the printed absolute-value event into both tails

P(∣Y−X−μ∣>4σ2)=P(Y−X−μ>4σ2)+P(Y−X−μ<−4σ2).\begin{aligned}&P(|Y-X-\mu|>4\sigma^2)\\ & =P(Y-X-\mu>4\sigma^2)\\ &{}+P(Y-X-\mu<-4\sigma^2).\end{aligned}

Divide the centred difference by its standard deviation 2σ:

P ⁣((Y−X)−μ2σ>4σ22σ)+P ⁣((Y−X)−μ2σ<−4σ22σ)=P(Z>2σ)+P(Z<−2σ).\begin{aligned}&P\!\left(\frac{(Y-X)-\mu}{2\sigma}>\frac{4\sigma^2}{2\sigma}\right)\\ &{}+P\!\left(\frac{(Y-X)-\mu}{2\sigma}<-\frac{4\sigma^2}{2\sigma}\right)\\ & =P(Z>2\sigma)+P(Z<-2\sigma).\end{aligned}

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(ii) Use symmetry and the given k

By standard-normal symmetry, P(Z>2σ)+P(Z<−2σ)=2P(Z>2σ)=2(1−P(Z<2σ))=2(1−k)P(Z>2\sigma)+P(Z<-2\sigma)=2P(Z>2\sigma)=2(1-P(Z<2\sigma))=2(1-k).

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Common mistakes

The source has absolute-value bars in the prompt and first probability line. Losing them would change the answer to 1−k.

Solution notes

Both asks, every centring/standardisation stage, mean/variance computation and full two-tail symmetry derivation retained. Absolute-value bars restored from rendered source; σ>0 and standard-normal Z made explicit. No marks printed.

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