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Worked solution

Choose a sample size from an exact normal mean distribution

The life, in hours, of a randomly chosen light bulb is normally distributed with mean 1100 and standard deviation 70. How large a sample is required so that the probability that its mean life exceeds 1120 is not more than 5%? Do you need the central limit theorem?

CJC · Discussion · Question 6

Answer

Least sample size n=34n=34; CLT is not needed.

Method 1: solve the upper-tail inequality

For independent lifetimes Xj∼N(1100,702)X_j\sim N(1100,70^2), the mean has exact distribution Xˉ∼N(1100,4900/n)\bar X\sim N(1100,4900/n). Thus P(Xˉ>1120)=P(Z>20n/70)≤0.05P(\bar X>1120)=P(Z>20\sqrt n/70)\le0.05 requires 20n/70≥Φ−1(0.95)≈1.644920\sqrt n/70\ge\Phi^{-1}(0.95)\approx1.6449. Hence n≥33.1…n\ge33.1\ldots and the least integer is 34.

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Method 2: use an integer table

The source enters normalcdf(1120,10^99,1100,√(70²/X)), with lower 1120, upper 109910^{99}, mean 1100 and standard deviation 702/X\sqrt{70^2/X}. Its printed table is:

nnProbability
330.0504
340.0479
350.0455

At 33 the probability exceeds 0.05; at 34 it is about 0.0478581, so 34 is the first acceptable integer. The screenshot’s surrounding values are:

Source screen values:

nnProbability
300.0588
310.0558
320.0530
330.0504
340.0479
350.0455
360.0432
370.0411
380.0391
390.0372
400.0354
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Explain why CLT is unnecessary

The population is explicitly normal, so its independent sample mean is exactly normal for every positive sample size. No CLT approximation is needed.

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Common mistakes

The standard deviation of the mean is 70/√n. Use the upper tail and do not reverse the sample-size inequality.

Solution notes

No marks are printed for this question; none are invented.

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