Porisma

The normal distribution

← Back to lesson · Complete chapter reading and print view · Open reference notes separately

By the end, you can

  • Standardise using the standard deviation
  • Translate probability statements into tail areas
  • Combine independent normal quantities

about 40 minutes for the lesson · practise at your own pace.

The central idea

For X∼N(μ,σ2)X\sim N(\mu,\sigma^2), Z=(X−μ)/σZ=(X-\mu)/\sigma has standard normal distribution. The second parameter is the variance; divide by its square root to standardise. Probabilities are areas under a continuous density, so P(X=x)=0. Linear combinations of independent normal variables remain normal, with variances adding after scaling.

Continuous values and probability density

The notes begin with values on a continuous scale. Waiting time in hours has support x≥0x\ge 0. A proportion can be modelled on 0≤x≤10\le x\le 1, but in a fixed finite town the actual possible voting fractions are discrete; treating them as continuous is an approximation.

Height is treated as continuous when it can be measured to arbitrary accuracy. An exact height of 171 cm has probability zero under that model. A height rounded to 171 cm describes an interval, such as 170.5≤X<171.5170.5\le X<171.5 under the usual half-up convention, and can have positive probability. The source’s list includes 169.9 and 169.95; those do not round to 171 cm and are not valid examples of that rounded interval.

A density ff is non-negative and has total area one:

f(x)≥0,∫−∞∞f(x) dx=1,P(a<X<b)=∫abf(x) dx.f(x)\ge 0,\qquad \int_{-\infty}^{\infty}f(x)\,dx=1,\qquad P(a<X<b)=\int_a^bf(x)\,dx.

The density is usually defined on all real numbers and may be zero outside the model’s support. A single point has zero width: P(X=a)=∫aaf(x) dx=0P(X=a)=\int_a^af(x)\,dx=0. Thus all four probabilities P(a<X<b)P(a<X<b), P(a<X≤b)P(a<X\le b), P(a≤X<b)P(a\le X<b) and P(a≤X≤b)P(a\le X\le b) are equal. The cumulative distribution function is

F(x)=P(X≤x)=∫−∞xf(t) dt.F(x)=P(X\le x)=\int_{-\infty}^xf(t)\,dt.

Read the normal model

Write X∼N(μ,σ2)X\sim N(\mu,\sigma^2), where μ is the mean, σ is the standard deviation and σ>0\sigma>0. Its density is

f(x)=12π σexp⁡ ⁣(−(x−μ)22σ2),−∞<x<∞.f(x)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}\,\sigma}\exp\!\left(-\frac{(x-\mu)^2}{2\sigma^2}\right),\qquad -\infty<x<\infty.

The notes discuss normal models for physical measurements, manufactured parts and measurement errors. Check the suitability of the model; a bell shape alone does not establish normality. “Gaussian” is another name used in the notes.

  • The peak occurs at x=μx=\mu; differentiating gives f′(x)=−(x−μ)f(x)/σ2f'(x)=-(x-\mu)f(x)/\sigma^2, positive before μ and negative after it.
  • Symmetry about x=μx=\mu puts mean, median and mode at μ.
  • The inflection points are x=μ±σx=\mu\pm\sigma. The curve is concave down between them and concave up outside them.
  • As x→±∞x\to\pm\infty, f(x)→0f(x)\to 0. The Teacher specifically stresses the horizontal asymptote y=0y=0: tails do not stop at finite bounds.
  • Total area under the density is one. Interval probabilities are areas, evaluated using the graphing calculator in these examples.

Changing μ shifts location while keeping variance fixed. The source uses N(0,1)N(0,1), N(1,1)N(1,1) and N(−2,1)N(-2,1). Changing variance changes spread: at mean 0, compare variances 1,0.5 and 2. Smaller variance gives a narrower, taller curve. The source’s last two spread plots have heights consistent with treating 0.5 and 2 as standard deviations; the accompanying figure here uses them as variances, as the printed notation requires.

For a normal distribution, approximately 68.3%, 95.4% and 99.7% lie within respectively one, two and three standard deviations of μ. These are central areas, not density heights.

From the shaded area to the calculator

First simplify the inequality, then sketch its region and choose the calculator limits. The source uses normalcdf(lower, upper, μ, σ) to evaluate the density integral. Enter the standard deviation, not the variance. For the examples here, the source uses −1099-10^{99} or 109910^{99} to simulate an infinite tail to the required precision; those finite numbers are not mathematical infinity.

Example 1 compares interval, right-tail, left-tail and modulus events. Then try all three parts of Self-Practice 1 before opening the working.

Find a cutoff from a probability

The next examples reverse the calculation: the area is given, and the unknown is a boundary. Start with a rough sketch, decide which area is given, and use the standard deviation in invNorm.

For X∼N(μ,σ2)X\sim N(\mu,\sigma^2):

  • invNorm(p,μ,σ,LEFT) returns x with P(X<x)=pP(X<x)=p.
  • invNorm(p,μ,σ,RIGHT) returns x with P(X>x)=pP(X>x)=p. A left-area-only command uses 1−p1-p instead.
  • invNorm(p,μ,σ,CENTER) returns two bounds μ−a\mu-a and μ+a\mu+a such that P(−a<X−μ<a)=pP(-a<X-\mu<a)=p. The bounds must be symmetric about the mean. Each tail has area (1−p)/2(1-p)/2.

The retained calculator walkthrough uses the tail selector in its stated OS 5.2.2 interface, with STAT WIZARDS ON. If that selector is unavailable, use the equivalent left cumulative area; the probability model does not depend on the interface.

Example 2 contrasts left and right areas, followed by Self-Practice 2. Example 3 uses a central 80% area and both returned endpoints. Pause and think shows why a fixed lower endpoint may require a different route.

Solve a probability inequality using its boundary

The source’s distinction example asks for less than5%, so finding a quantile is only the first step. Find k satisfying the matching equality, then compare the proposed cutoff x with k on a sketch.

For 0<p<10<p<1, a normal lower cumulative area increases as its cutoff moves right; an upper-tail area decreases. The four strict forms are:

Given conditionBoundary usedRequired side
P(X<x)<pP(X<x)<pP(X<k)=pP(X<k)=px<kx<k
P(X<x)>pP(X<x)>pP(X<k)=pP(X<k)=px>kx>k
P(X>x)<pP(X>x)<pP(X>k)=pP(X>k)=px>kx>k
P(X>x)>pP(X>x)>pP(X>k)=pP(X>k)=px<kx<k

Example 4 keeps the strict real-valued range and then identifies the smallest permissible one-decimal cutoff. The separate self-directed Example 4 retains the source’s repeated number.

Standard normal scores

A standard normal random variable has mean 0 and variance 1: Z∼N(0,1)Z\sim N(0,1). It is also called a standard score or z-score. Its density is

ϕ(z)=12πe−z2/2,−∞<z<∞.\phi(z)=\frac 1{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-z^2/2},\qquad -\infty<z<\infty.

Standardisation expresses a value in standard deviations from its mean. It lets you compare relative standing in distributions with different spreads and helps solve for unknown μ and/or σ.

The notes ask whether scoring 60% in one test and 65% in another establishes better performance relative to peers.

Raw percentages alone do not: you need the tests’ means and standard deviations. The later source comparison develops this question; no missing data are invented here.

Derive the transformation: first X∼N(5,2²)

The original density is

g(x)=122πe−(x−5)2/8.g(x)=\frac 1{2\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-(x-5)^2/8}.

  1. Translate five units left. Replace x with x+5:

g(x+5)=122πe−(x+5−5)2/8=122πe−x2/8.g(x+5)=\frac 1{2\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-(x+5-5)^2/8}=\frac 1{2\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-x^2/8}.

The mean is now 0; the standard deviation remains 2.

  1. Compress horizontally by a factor 1/2. Replace x with 2 x in the translated function:

g(2x+5)=122πe−(2x)2/8=122πe−x2/2.g(2 x+5)=\frac 1{2\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-(2 x)^2/8}=\frac 1{2\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-x^2/2}.

The width is now that of a standard normal, but the total area has halved. This intermediate curve is not yet a probability density.

  1. Stretch vertically by a factor 2. Equivalently replace y with y/2:

y2=122πe−x2/2⟹y=12πe−x2/2.\frac y 2=\frac 1{2\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-x^2/2}\quad\Longrightarrow\quad y=\frac 1{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-x^2/2}.

The area returns to 1, giving the standard normal density. The corresponding random variable is Z=(X−5)/2Z=(X-5)/2.

Generalise the three graph transformations

For the normal density fX(x)f_X(x) with mean μ and standard deviation σ>0\sigma>0, use the same sequence:

  1. Translate parallel to the x-axis by −μ, replacing x with x+μ:

fX(x+μ)=1σ2πe−(x+μ−μ)2/(2σ2)=1σ2πe−x2/(2σ2).f_X(x+\mu)=\frac 1{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-(x+\mu-\mu)^2/(2\sigma^2)}=\frac 1{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-x^2/(2\sigma^2)}.

  1. Scale parallel to the x-axis by 1/σ, replacing x with σx in the translated expression:

fX(σx+μ)=1σ2πe−(σx)2/(2σ2)=1σ2πe−x2/2.f_X(\sigma x+\mu)=\frac 1{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-(\sigma x)^2/(2\sigma^2)}=\frac 1{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-x^2/2}.

  1. Scale parallel to the y-axis by σ, replacing y with y/σ:

yσ=1σ2πe−x2/2⟹y=12πe−x2/2.\frac y\sigma=\frac 1{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-x^2/2}\quad\Longrightarrow\quad y=\frac 1{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-x^2/2}.

The source’s graphical argument begins with an interval x1<X<x2x_1<X<x_2 of area A. Translation leaves area A, with bounds x1−μx_1-\mu and x2−μx_2-\mu. Horizontal scaling gives bounds (x1−μ)/σ(x_1-\mu)/\sigma and (x2−μ)/σ(x_2-\mu)/\sigma but area A/σ. Vertical scaling multiplies that area by σ, restoring A. Thus

P(x1<X<x2)=P ⁣(x1−μσ<X−μσ<x2−μσ).P(x_1<X<x_2)=P\!\left(\frac{x_1-\mu}{\sigma}<\frac{X-\mu}{\sigma}<\frac{x_2-\mu}{\sigma}\right).

Both the horizontal and vertical scalings matter for a density graph. For the random variable, standardisation is simply Z=(X−μ)/σ∼N(0,1)Z=(X-\mu)/\sigma\sim N(0,1); it does not involve another random vertical variable.

Try Self-Practice 3, including the two-tail modulus event.

Confirm standardisation by integration

Define Z=(X−μ)/σZ=(X-\mu)/\sigma, with σ>0\sigma>0. The source next confirms the preserved area by substitution. Put z=(x−μ)/σz=(x-\mu)/\sigma, so dz/dx=1/σdz/dx=1/\sigma and dx/dz=σdx/dz=\sigma. The new limits are z1=(x1−μ)/σz_1=(x_1-\mu)/\sigma and z2=(x2−μ)/σz_2=(x_2-\mu)/\sigma.

P(x1<X<x2)=∫x1x21σ2πe−(x−μ)2/(2σ2) dx=1σ∫x1x212πe−12((x−μ)/σ)2 dx.P(x_1<X<x_2)=\int_{x_1}^{x_2}\frac 1{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-(x-\mu)^2/(2\sigma^2)}\,dx=\frac 1\sigma\int_{x_1}^{x_2}\frac 1{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-\frac 12((x-\mu)/\sigma)^2}\,dx.

=1σ∫z1z212πe−z2/2dxdz dz=1σ∫z1z212πe−z2/2σ dz.=\frac 1\sigma\int_{z_1}^{z_2}\frac 1{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-z^2/2}\frac{dx}{dz}\,dz=\frac 1\sigma\int_{z_1}^{z_2}\frac 1{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-z^2/2}\sigma\,dz.

=∫z1z212πe−z2/2 dz=P ⁣(x1−μσ<Z<x2−μσ).=\int_{z_1}^{z_2}\frac 1{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-z^2/2}\,dz=P\!\left(\frac{x_1-\mu}{\sigma}<Z<\frac{x_2-\mu}{\sigma}\right).

Subtracting μ and dividing by positive σ also gives the same event directly:

{x1<X<x2}={x1−μ<X−μ<x2−μ}={x1−μσ<X−μσ<x2−μσ}.\{x_1<X<x_2\}=\{x_1-\mu<X-\mu<x_2-\mu\}=\left\{\frac{x_1-\mu}{\sigma}<\frac{X-\mu}{\sigma}<\frac{x_2-\mu}{\sigma}\right\}.

The factor σ from the change in integration width cancels the density’s 1/σ factor. This is the algebraic counterpart of the earlier horizontal and vertical graph scalings. The definition of Z and this calculation establish its standard normal distribution; equality of probabilities alone is not being used to identify two arbitrary random variables on the same sample space.

Use quantiles to find unknown parameters

When μ and/or σ are unknown, the source standardises to N(0,1)N(0,1) before using the given tail probabilities. Example 5 gives one equation for an unknown mean; Example 6 gives two equations for μ and σ. Keep at least 5 significant figures in intermediate working and inspect the meaning of any rounded interval endpoints.

The test-score illustration returns to the earlier 60% versus 65% question with actual means and variances supplied by the source.

Transform one normal variable

For X∼N(μ,σ2)X\sim N(\mu,\sigma^2) and a≠0,

aX±b∼N(aμ±b,a2σ2).aX\pm b\sim N(a\mu\pm b,a^2\sigma^2).

Translation changes the mean but leaves variance unchanged. Multiplication by a changes variance by a2a^2; the standard deviation becomes ∣a∣σ|a|\sigma. The source states the rule for any real a; when a=0, the result is a constant with variance 0, rather than a non-degenerate normal variable.

For the source’s proof, take Y=aX+bY=aX+b with a>0. Its cumulative probability is

P(Y<y1)=P(aX+b<y1)=P ⁣(X<y1−ba)=∫−∞(y1−b)/a1σ2πe−(x−μ)2/(2σ2) dx.P(Y<y_1)=P(aX+b<y_1)=P\!\left(X<\frac{y_1-b}{a}\right)=\int_{-\infty}^{(y_1-b)/a}\frac 1{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-(x-\mu)^2/(2\sigma^2)}\,dx.

Set y=ax+by=ax+b, so dy/dx=ady/dx=a, x=(y−b)/ax=(y-b)/a and dx/dy=1/adx/dy=1/a. As x→−∞x\to-\infty, y→−∞y\to-\infty; at x=(y1−b)/ax=(y_1-b)/a, y=y1y=y_1. Then

P(Y<y1)=∫−∞y11σ2πe−((y−b)/a−μ)2/(2σ2)1a dy.P(Y<y_1)=\int_{-\infty}^{y_1}\frac 1{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-((y-b)/a-\mu)^2/(2\sigma^2)}\frac 1 a\,dy.

=∫−∞y11aσ2πe−(y−aμ−b)2/(2a2σ2) dy=∫−∞y11aσ2πe−[y−(aμ+b)]2/[2(aσ)2] dy.=\int_{-\infty}^{y_1}\frac 1{a\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-(y-a\mu-b)^2/(2 a^2\sigma^2)}\,dy=\int_{-\infty}^{y_1}\frac 1{a\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-[y-(a\mu+b)]^2/[2(a\sigma)^2]}\,dy.

This is the cumulative distribution of N(aμ+b,a2σ2)N(a\mu+b,a^2\sigma^2). For a<0, dividing the event inequality by a reverses its direction: P(Y<y1)=P(X>(y1−b)/a)P(Y<y_1)=P(X>(y_1-b)/a). Accounting for reversed limits gives the density with positive scale ∣a∣σ|a|\sigma and the same variance a2σ2a^2\sigma^2. The source calls these expressions “cumulative density”; they are cumulative distribution probabilities.

Combine independent normal variables

If X and Y are independent normal variables with respective means μX,μY\mu_X,\mu_Y and variances σX2,σY2\sigma_X^2,\sigma_Y^2, then

aX±bY∼N(aμX±bμY, a2σX2+b2σY2),aX\pm bY\sim N(a\mu_X\pm b\mu_Y,\ a^2\sigma_X^2+b^2\sigma_Y^2),

provided the resulting variance is positive. If both coefficients are zero, the combination is a constant. Subtraction changes the mean’s sign but adds the independent variances.

For independent observations X1,…,XnX_1,\ldots,X_n, each N(μ,σ2)N(\mu,\sigma^2),

X1+⋯+Xn∼N(nμ,nσ2),n≥1.X_1+\cdots+X_n\sim N(n\mu,n\sigma^2),\qquad n\ge 1.

The complete source expectation/variance summary is:

PropertyExpectationVariance
Constant aE(a)=aE(a)=aVar⁡(a)=0\operatorname{Var}(a)=0
Scale one variableE(aX)=aE(X)E(aX)=aE(X)Var⁡(aX)=a2Var⁡(X)\operatorname{Var}(aX)=a^2\operatorname{Var}(X)
Scale and translateE(aX±b)=aE(X)±bE(aX\pm b)=aE(X)\pm bVar⁡(aX±b)=a2Var⁡(X)\operatorname{Var}(aX\pm b)=a^2\operatorname{Var}(X)
Combine two variablesE(aX±bY)=aE(X)±bE(Y)E(aX\pm bY)=aE(X)\pm bE(Y); independence is not requiredFor independent X,Y: Var⁡(aX±bY)=a2Var⁡(X)+b2Var⁡(Y)\operatorname{Var}(aX\pm bY)=a^2\operatorname{Var}(X)+b^2\operatorname{Var}(Y)

The source warns against applying the variance sum without independence. More precisely, independence is sufficient, and without it the omitted covariance term may matter:

Var⁡(aX±bY)=a2Var⁡(X)+b2Var⁡(Y)±2abCov⁡(X,Y).\operatorname{Var}(aX\pm bY)=a^2\operatorname{Var}(X)+b^2\operatorname{Var}(Y)\pm 2 ab\operatorname{Cov}(X,Y).

Zero covariance can also make the variance sum valid; it alone does not establish that an arbitrary combination of marginally normal variables is normal. The independent-normal rule above supplies both the distribution and its variance.

One scaled observation or several observations?

The notes distinguish nX, n times one observation of one object, from X1+⋯+XnX_1+\cdots+X_n, the sum of n independent observations from n objects. For n>1 and positive σ², their variances differ:

nX∼N(nμ,n2σ2),X1+⋯+Xn∼N(nμ,nσ2).nX\sim N(n\mu,n^2\sigma^2),\qquad X_1+\cdots+X_n\sim N(n\mu,n\sigma^2).

Words like “twice” or “thrice” usually mean scaling; “sum of” usually combines observations. Always inspect the actual objects and independence assumptions. The source’s translation reminder also follows from the table: shifting every value by the same constant changes the mean and leaves the variance unchanged.

Self-directed learning: normal approximation to a binomial

For X∼B(n,p)X\sim B(n,p) the source compares binomial probability bars with a matching normal curve, keeping npnp constant while increasing nn. Its six panels use np=2np=2 or np=5np=5, each with n=10,50,100n=10,50,100. The reconstruction below calculates p=(np)/np=(np)/n and overlays the density of Y∼N(np,np(1−p))Y\sim N(np,np(1-p)). Binomial bar heights are point probabilities; a normal density height is not itself a point probability.

The source’s general rule is np>5np>5 and n(1−p)>5n(1-p)>5. Keep the strict inequalities as printed. This is a practical approximation heuristic, not a universal accuracy guarantee, particularly for far tails. Increasing nn while holding a small npnp fixed does not force a good normal approximation: the np=2np=2 panels remain skewed. The np=5np=5 panels are at the stated threshold, rather than satisfying np>5np>5.

Independently authored use note: for a count event, continuity correction aligns an integer bin with a continuous interval; for example, P(X≤k)≈P(Y<k+1/2)P(X\le k)\approx P(Y<k+1/2). Check the actual event and approximation quality rather than substituting a normal density value for a probability. Exact binomial probabilities remain available.

The printed optional resources are GeoGebra simulation and fixed-np exploration. These are retained source pointers; their remote contents have not been reviewed here.

Location and spread

Expand diagram

Use the scrollbars or arrow keys to inspect details.

Six normal curves. With variance 1, means 0, 1 and −2 shift the location. With mean 0, variances 1, 0.5 and 2 give peaks of approximately 0.399, 0.564 and 0.282 respectively. Smaller variance gives a narrower, taller curve. The source spread figures were corrected to use the printed variance convention.
Six normal curves. With variance 1, means 0, 1 and −2 shift the location. With mean 0, variances 1, 0.5 and 2 give peaks of approximately 0.399, 0.564 and 0.282 respectively. Smaller variance gives a narrower, taller curve. The source spread figures were corrected to use the printed variance convention.
Six normal curves. With variance 1, means 0, 1 and −2 shift the location. With mean 0, variances 1, 0.5 and 2 give peaks of approximately 0.399, 0.564 and 0.282 respectively. Smaller variance gives a narrower, taller curve. The source spread figures were corrected to use the printed variance convention.
Open original diagram (new tab)

Areas within standard deviations

Expand diagram

Use the scrollbars or arrow keys to inspect details.

Areas between μ−σ and μ+σ approximately 68.3%; μ−2σ and μ+2σ approximately 95.4%; μ−3σ and μ+3σ approximately 99.7%. All three shaded regions are centred at the mean.
Areas between μ−σ and μ+σ approximately 68.3%; μ−2σ and μ+2σ approximately 95.4%; μ−3σ and μ+3σ approximately 99.7%. All three shaded regions are centred at the mean.
Areas between μ−σ and μ+σ approximately 68.3%; μ−2σ and μ+2σ approximately 95.4%; μ−3σ and μ+3σ approximately 99.7%. All three shaded regions are centred at the mean.
Open original diagram (new tab)

Method map: Translate a normal event before calculating

Identify the model and its spread, keep the event when standardising, then match the calculation to the shaded area. An interval probability and a density height are different quantities.

  1. Read the spread before entering a calculator value

    In the variance convention N(μ, σ²), the second parameter is the variance. Standardisation requires a positive standard deviation.

    X∼N(μ,σ2)X\sim N(\mu,\sigma^2)

    σ>0\sigma>0

    Expand diagram

    Use the scrollbars or arrow keys to inspect details. The text explanation follows.

    Variance v is givenUse σ = √v

    For a model N(70,25)N(70,25), enter standard deviation 5. Do not enter 25 as the standard deviation.

    Standard deviation is givenUse it directly

    For N(100,62)N(100,6^2), the standard deviation is 6 and the variance is 36. Label the parameter rather than guessing from the size of the number.

    Check that the normal model is stated or justified in context. A zero spread does not give a nondegenerate standard normal variable and cannot be used as the divisor here.

  2. Transform every cutoff and preserve the event

    Define Z from the same variable X. Subtract the mean and divide every bound by the positive standard deviation; the inequality directions stay unchanged.

    Z=X−μσ∼N(0,1)Z=\dfrac{X-\mu}{\sigma}\sim N(0,1)

    Left or right tailKeep the shaded side

    The event X<cX<c becomes Z<(c−μ)/σZ<(c-\mu)/\sigma; the event X>cX>c becomes Z>(c−μ)/σZ>(c-\mu)/\sigma. A right-tail event does not turn into a left-tail event merely because the variable is standardised.

    Between two boundsTransform both endpoints

    For a<X<ba<X<b, set za=(a−μ)/σz_a=(a-\mu)/\sigma and zb=(b−μ)/σz_b=(b-\mu)/\sigma. The event is za<Z<zbz_a<Z<z_b, with the same probability. With a nondegenerate normal model, including an individual endpoint does not change that probability.

    The source density stages have areas AA, AA, A/σA/\sigma, then AA. Horizontal compression of a drawn density alone changes its area; the compensating vertical stretch restores a normalised density. Compare the four stages and their labelled areas in the source figure.

  3. Choose an area calculation or an inverse cutoff

    Decide whether the unknown is a probability or a cutoff. Sketch the shaded region and name the calculator's area convention before using it.

    Φ(z)=P(Z≤z)\Phi(z)=P(Z\le z)

    Known cutoffsCalculate the probability of the event

    For a standardised cutoff z, a left area is Φ(z)\Phi(z) and a right area is 1−Φ(z)1-\Phi(z). For the standardised interval za<Z<zbz_a<Z<z_b, use Φ(zb)−Φ(za)\Phi(z_b)-\Phi(z_a). For a direct normalcdf calculation, use the original bounds with μ and σ, or the standardised bounds with mean 0 and standard deviation 1. Do not mix those two parameter sets.

    Known one-sided probability pMatch the inverse to the tail

    For 0<p<10<p<1, a lower-tail-only inverse uses p for a stated left area and 1−p for a stated right area. When a standard-normal inverse returns z, recover the original cutoff with x=μ+σzx=\mu+\sigma z. An inverse supplied with the original μ and σ already returns the original cutoff. An interface with an explicit RIGHT selector may instead use the right area directly; do not complement it twice.

    Known central probability pUse symmetry only when justified

    For a central interval symmetric about the mean and 0<p<10<p<1, the lower-tail endpoint areas are (1−p)/2(1-p)/2 and (1+p)/2(1+p)/2. CENTER returns endpoints, not the half-width. An arbitrary interval is not determined by its area alone.

    Check whether a cutoff should be above or below the mean and substitute back into the original event. Keep full calculator precision until the final requested rounding. A density height is not a probability.

Try a worked example

Read a case, make a prediction, then reveal the reasoning. The examples keep their stated values.

A large right area gives a cutoff below the mean

The source gives X∼N(100,62)X\sim N(100,6^2) and P(X>b)=0.770P(X>b)=0.770. Before calculating, predict which side of 100 contains b.

Show reasoning
  1. 1. Identify the spread and shade the stated area

    The standard deviation is 6, not the variance 36. More than half the curve lies to the right of b, so b is below the mean.

  2. 2. Complement only for a lower-tail interface

    A RIGHT-tail interface can use the given 0.770 directly. A lower-tail-only inverse uses the complementary area 0.230. Both describe the same cutoff.

    P(X<b)=1−0.770=0.230.\begin{aligned}P(X<b)&=1-0.770\\&=0.230.\end{aligned}
  3. 3. Recover the cutoff and check its direction

    Keep calculator precision until the source’s final rounding to three significant figures. The result is below 100 as predicted.

    b=100+6Φ−1(0.230)≈95.56691888≈95.6(3 s.f.).\begin{aligned}b&=100+6\Phi^{-1}(0.230)\\&\approx95.56691888\\&\approx95.6\quad(3\text{ s.f.}).\end{aligned}
Continue with the lesson question

A central interval has two endpoints and one half-width

The source gives X∼N(70,25)X\sim N(70,25) and P(∣X−70∣<a)=0.8P(|X-70|<a)=0.8. Find the central interval, then distinguish its endpoints from the half-width a.

Show reasoning
  1. 1. Expand the event and split the remaining area

    The standard deviation is the positive square root of 25, namely 5. The interval has probability 0.8 and its bounds are symmetric about 70, so the remaining 0.2 splits into tails of 0.1.

    70−a<X<70+a.70-a<X<70+a.
  2. 2. Use lower-tail areas 0.1 and 0.9

    A CENTER interface returns the pair of endpoints; the two lower-tail inverse calculations return the same pair. Neither returned endpoint is a itself.

    L=70+5Φ−1(0.1)≈63.59224217,U=70+5Φ−1(0.9)≈76.40775783.\begin{aligned}L&=70+5\Phi^{-1}(0.1)\\&\approx63.59224217,\\U&=70+5\Phi^{-1}(0.9)\\&\approx76.40775783.\end{aligned}
  3. 3. Find the half-width separately

    Either endpoint gives the same half-width. The source reports a = 6.41 and interval limits 63.6 and 76.4, all to three significant figures. Retain the full endpoint values until rounding.

    a=U−70=70−L≈6.40775783≈6.41.\begin{aligned}a&=U-70=70-L\\&\approx6.40775783\\&\approx6.41.\end{aligned}
Continue with the lesson question

Compare with the density transformation

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Four stages. Start with X normal mean 5 standard deviation 2, interval 6 to 8 and areaA. Translation left 5 gives interval 1 to 3 with areaA. Horizontal compression by 1/2 gives interval.5 to 1.5 but areaA/2, so this intermediate graph is not a normalised density. Vertical stretch 2 restores areaA and the standard normal density. In general the successive areas are A,A,A/σ,A.
Four stages. Start with X normal mean 5 standard deviation 2, interval 6 to 8 and areaA. Translation left 5 gives interval 1 to 3 with areaA. Horizontal compression by 1/2 gives interval.5 to 1.5 but areaA/2, so this intermediate graph is not a normalised density. Vertical stretch 2 restores areaA and the standard normal density. In general the successive areas are A,A,A/σ,A.
Four stages. Start with X normal mean 5 standard deviation 2, interval 6 to 8 and areaA. Translation left 5 gives interval 1 to 3 with areaA. Horizontal compression by 1/2 gives interval.5 to 1.5 but areaA/2, so this intermediate graph is not a normalised density. Vertical stretch 2 restores areaA and the standard normal density. In general the successive areas are A,A,A/σ,A.
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Six source binomial-to-normal comparisons

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Six reconstructed panels compare exact binomial probability bars with the normal density having the same mean and variance: np=2 or 5 and n=10,50,100. Keeping small np fixed while increasing n leaves skewness; the source heuristic requires both np and n(1−p) strictly greater than 5.
Six reconstructed panels compare exact binomial probability bars with the normal density having the same mean and variance: np=2 or 5 and n=10,50,100. Keeping small np fixed while increasing n leaves skewness; the source heuristic requires both np and n(1−p) strictly greater than 5.
Six reconstructed panels compare exact binomial probability bars with the normal density having the same mean and variance: np=2 or 5 and n=10,50,100. Keeping small np fixed while increasing n leaves skewness; the source heuristic requires both np and n(1−p) strictly greater than 5.
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Explore

Independent masses X and Y each follow N(100,9)N(100,9). Compare X+Y with 2X. Predict their centres, spreads and probabilities of lying between 194 and 206 before calculating. Sketch both distributions on common axes, then check using their standard deviations in a normal probability calculation. Explain what represents two independently selected objects and what represents two copies of one measurement.

Worked example

If X∼N(10,4)X\sim N(10,4), its standard deviation is 22. P(X<12)=P(Z<1)≈0.8413P(X<12)=P(Z<1)\approx0.8413. For Y=3X+1Y=3X+1, E(Y)=31E(Y)=31 and Var⁡(Y)=36\operatorname{Var}(Y)=36.

Subtracting independent variables still adds their variances; subtracting the same variable from itself is a different situation.

Check your understanding

A measurement X is modelled as normal, with unknown mean and standard deviation. It has P(X<40)=0.10P(X<40)=0.10 and P(X>65)=0.20P(X>65)=0.20. Estimate both parameters and find the upper cutoff exceeded by 5% of measurements. State the lower-tail probabilities used and verify your fitted parameters against both original statements.

Mastery learning objectives

At the end of this chapter, I should be able to:

Model and compute normal probabilities

Understand the normal distribution as a continuous probability model, including its mean, variance and notation N(μ,σ2)N(\mu,\sigma^2).

Make computations involving the standard normal distribution.

Find P(X<x1)P(X<x_1) or a related probability given x1,μ,σx_1,\mu,\sigma.

Use the symmetry and properties of the normal curve to compute probabilities.

Determine a relationship between x1,μ,σx_1,\mu,\sigma given P(X<x1)P(X<x_1) or a related probability.

Transform and combine variables

Solve problems using E(aX+b)E(aX+b) and Var⁡(aX+b)\operatorname{Var}(aX+b).

Solve problems using E(aX+bY)E(aX+bY) and Var⁡(aX+bY)\operatorname{Var}(aX+bY) where X,YX,Y are independent.

Choose a practice question

The source’s two checkpoints are after lecture and after tutorial. Its full question map is retained below; a blank cell is blank in the source. The two combination bullets share one printed reference cell.

Common question typeLecture examplesDiscussionReview problems (follow up)
Decide whether N(μ,σ2)N(\mu,\sigma^2) is a suitable model23(i)
Find P(X<x1)P(X<x_1) or a related probability given x1,μ,σx_1,\mu,\sigma1, 41, 3(first part), 6, 7(a), 9(first part)1(i), 2(ii), 3(ii), 5(ii), 6(i), 10(i)&(ii)
Find x1x_1 given a probability, μ,σ\mu,\sigma2, 365(i), 7(i), 8(i)
Use standardisation to solve for μ\mu and/or σ\sigma5, 63(second part), 4, 53(iii), 5(i), 8(i), 9(i), 10(iii), 11(i)
Linear combinations of independent normals; sums of independent identically distributed normals7, 8, 9, 107(b)–(e), 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 131(ii)(iii), 2(i)(iii), 3(iv), 4, 5(first part), 6(iii), 7(iii), 8(ii), 9(ii)(iv)(v)(vi), 10(iv), 11(ii)
Prior topic: Binomial Distribution7(ii), 9(iii)

For independent X,YX,Y, the map gives aX±bY∼N(aμX±bμY,a2σX2+b2σY2)aX\pm bY\sim N(a\mu_X\pm b\mu_Y,a^2\sigma_X^2+b^2\sigma_Y^2). For independent identically distributed observations, X1+⋯+Xn∼N(nμ,nσ2)X_1+\cdots+X_n\sim N(n\mu,n\sigma^2). Retain the chapter’s qualifications for zero variance, dependence and the distinction between a sum and nXnX.

Additional lecture-only Review12: maximise an interval probability is printed after the source map and is not listed among its original routes.

Practice questions

Practice section 1 · Questions 1–6

Translate intervals and tails into normal probabilities · Practise interval, left-tail and central probabilities · +4 more

Practice section 2 · Questions 7–12

Find the range of distinction cutoffs · Use the standard normal model directly · +4 more

Practice section 3 · Questions 13–18

Scale one observation or combine independent variables · Distinguish two children from twice one child · +4 more

Practice section 4 · Questions 19–24

Use the lower-tail quantile to set the new filling mean · Convert both rejection rates into quantile equations · +4 more

Practice section 5 · Questions 25–30

Add a fixed box mass and retain both at-least-one methods · Separate contents, packaging and independent packet sums · +4 more

Practice section 6 · Questions 31–36

Scale fruit masses before combining independent prices · Use the given variances and the central eighty percent · +4 more

Practice section 7 · Questions 37–41

Recover a component normal distribution from a sum of two observations · Keep the instructed rounded model consistent with later probabilities · +3 more

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