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Worked solution

Use a large sample when individual times need not be normal

A large number of students in a college have completed a geography project. The time, xx hours, taken by a student to complete the project is noted for a random sample of 150 students. The results are summarised by ∑x=4626\sum x=4626, ∑x2=147691\sum x^2=147691.

Find unbiased estimates for the population mean and variance.

Test, at the 5% significance level, whether the population mean time for a student to complete the project exceeds 30 hours.

State, giving a reason, whether any assumption about the population is needed for the test to be valid.

[N2007/II/7]

CJC · Lecture · Example 3

Estimate the population moments

The sample mean is xˉ=4626/150=30.84\bar x=4626/150=30.84 hours. The unbiased variance estimate is s2=[147691−46262/150]/149=33.7259060403… hours2s^2=[147691-4626^2/150]/149=33.7259060403\ldots\ \mathrm{hours}^2, or 33.7 to 3 s.f. The source first prints 33.7259; use the unrounded value in later calculations.

How did this part go?

State the hypotheses and justify the approximation

Let μ\mu be the population mean completion time in hours. Test H0:μ=30H_0:\mu=30 against H1:μ>30H_1:\mu>30. For a large independent random sample with finite variance, the CLT and estimated variance give Xˉ≈N(30,s2/150)\bar X\approx N(30,s^2/150) under H0H_0. Thus (Xˉ−30)/s2/150(\bar X-30)/\sqrt{s^2/150} is approximately standard normal. This is an approximation, not an exactly normal population model.

How did this part go?

Calculate the upper-tail p-value and conclude

z=(30.84−30)/s2/150=1.771507938…z=(30.84-30)/\sqrt{s^2/150}=1.771507938\ldots and p=P(Z≥z)=0.03823813692…≈0.0382p=P(Z\ge z)=0.03823813692\ldots\approx0.0382. Since p≤0.05p\le0.05, reject H0H_0: sufficient evidence at 5% that the mean completion time exceeds 30 hours. The teacher strategy chooses the p-value method because all summary inputs are available. The source Z-Test Stats screen uses μ0=30\mu_0=30, estimated SD 5.8074004511485 from rounded variance 33.7259, xˉ=30.84\bar x=30.84, n=150n=150 and the greater-than alternative; its outputs are z=1.771508097z=1.771508097, p=0.0382380757p=0.0382380757. Retain this source decimal separately from the independent calculation; both give the printed 0.0382 and same decision.

How did this part go?

Answer the population-assumption question

No assumption of a normally distributed individual completion time is needed for the stated large-sample approximation. The teacher says “No assumption is needed”; interpret that in this population-shape sense. Random, suitably independent observations, finite variance and a sufficiently good CLT approximation are still required.

How did this part go?

Common mistakes

The CLT concerns the sample mean. It does not make individual project times normal or remove all sampling assumptions.

Solution notes

Teacher-filled hypotheses, sampling model, rejection rule, conclusion and assumption explanation are integrated. No marks are printed. Full original wording remains in the native transcription.

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