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Worked solution

Compare sequential draws with unordered counter pairs

A bag contains 5 counters,3 green and 2 white. Two counters are picked at random without replacement. Find the probability that (i) one green and one white are drawn, (ii) at least one green is drawn, (iii) at least one white is drawn, given that at least one green is drawn.

CJC · Lecture · Example 7

Method 1: label the sequential tree

Let Gi,WiG_i,W_i mean green or white on draw i. First-draw probabilities are 3/5 and 2/5. After green, second-draw probabilities are 2/4 green and 2/4 white; after white, they are 3/4 green and 1/4 white. Each outgoing pair sums to 1.

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(i) Tree: add the two colour orders

P(G1∩W2)+P(W1∩G2)=(3/5)(2/4)+(2/5)(3/4)=3/5P(G_1\cap W_2)+P(W_1\cap G_2)=(3/5)(2/4)+(2/5)(3/4)=3/5. These are disjoint paths.

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(ii) Tree: subtract the all-white path

P(at least one green)=1−P(W1∩W2)=1−(2/5)(1/4)=9/10P(\text{at least one green})=1-P(W_1\cap W_2)=1-(2/5)(1/4)=9/10.

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(iii) Tree: reuse the earlier overlap and reference probabilities

With two draws, at least one white and at least one green means exactly one of each. Thus P(at least one white∣at least one green)=(3/5)/(9/10)=2/3P(\text{at least one white}\mid\text{at least one green})=(3/5)/(9/10)=2/3. This integrates the Teacher annotations pointing to part (i) for the numerator and part (ii) for the denominator.

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Method 2: distinguish physical counters before counting pairs

Label the individual counters G1,G2,G3,W1,W2. These are physical identities, distinct from draw-index event notation. The 10 unordered pairs are equally likely, so the common denominator is (52)=10\binom52=10.

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(i) Combinations: choose one of each colour

There are (31)(21)=6\binom31\binom21=6 favourable pairs: choose one of the 3 green counters and one of the 2 white counters. The probability is 6/10=3/5.

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(ii) Combinations: exclude the one all-white pair

There are 10−(22)=910-\binom22=9 pairs with at least one green, giving 9/10.

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(iii) Combinations: condition on those nine pairs

The favourable overlap is the same one-green-one-white event, with 6 of the 9 eligible pairs. Equivalently reuse the printed ratio (3/5)/(9/10)=2/3. Both methods count the same physical experiment with consistent outcome spaces.

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Compare your sketch

Two draws without replacement

Start with 3 green and 2 white counters. Four counters remain after the first draw.

Start · probability 1

Open a branch to follow its outcomes. Outcome percentages are for complete paths. Open an outcome to see its calculation.

  • G₁ · Green3/5 · 2 outcomes

    G₁ · Green

    • G₂ · GreenPath 30%
      G₁ · Green → G₂ · Green
      Branch weights
      3/5 × 2/4
      Complete path probability
      3/10= 0.3 · 30%
    • W₂ · WhitePath 30%
      G₁ · Green → W₂ · White
      Branch weights
      3/5 × 2/4
      Complete path probability
      3/10= 0.3 · 30%
  • W₁ · White2/5 · 2 outcomes

    W₁ · White

    • G₂ · GreenPath 30%
      W₁ · White → G₂ · Green
      Branch weights
      2/5 × 3/4
      Complete path probability
      3/10= 0.3 · 30%
    • W₂ · WhitePath 10%
      W₁ · White → W₂ · White
      Branch weights
      2/5 × 1/4
      Complete path probability
      1/10= 0.1 · 10%
Compare outcome probabilities
Multiply along each complete path. All outcomes together have probability 1.
OutcomeProbability
G₁ · Green → G₂ · Green3/10= 0.3 · 30%
G₁ · Green → W₂ · White3/10= 0.3 · 30%
W₁ · White → G₂ · Green3/10= 0.3 · 30%
W₁ · White → W₂ · White1/10= 0.1 · 10%
All 4 outcomes1= 1 · 100%
Tree assumptions and source notes

Gᵢ and Wᵢ name the colour on draw i, not the identity of an individual counter.

The second draw has four counters left. Update both the colour count and the denominator; the draws are not independent.

GG, GW, WG and WW are complete ordered outcomes. The colour types GG, GW and WW are not equally likely.

Open original probability tree (new tab)
Source tree for two draws without replacement. The first draw is green with probability 3/5 or white with probability 2/5. After green, the second draw is green with probability 2/4 or white with probability 2/4. After white, the second draw is green with probability 3/4 or white with probability 1/4. Leaves GG, GW, WG and WW are supplemental path labels. G_i and W_i mean green and white on draw i. The denominator changes from five to four because there is no replacement.

Common mistakes

Without replacement, update the second-draw counts and denominator. The three colour types GG, GW, WW are not equally likely. Label physical counters for the combination method; those labels do not make the two draws independent.

Read the hint