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Probability and conditional information

Practice section 3 of 8

Questions 13–18 in this collection

Practice questions

Worked example · 4 of 6

Condition on a full tank after a fuel-type split

At a petrol station,30%of customers buy leaded petrol,60%buy unleaded petrol and the remainder buy diesel. A leaded-petrol customer has a 25%chance of filling the tank; an unleaded-petrol customer has a 20%chance; a diesel customer has a 30%chance.

(i) Draw a probability tree.

(ii) Find the probability that a car leaving does not have a full tank.

(iii) Given that it has a full tank, find the probability that it contains unleaded petrol.

CJC · Lecture · Example 8

Solution

Self-practice · 5 of 6

Weight defect rates by production share

A factory has three machines A,B,C producing large numbers of an item. Their shares of daily production are 50%,30%,20%, respectively.

Their respective defect rates are 2%,3%,4%. The occurrence of a defective item is independent of all other items.

One item is chosen at random from the day’s total output.

(i) Show that its probability of being defective is 0.027.

(ii) Given that it is defective, find the probability that it was produced on A.

CJC · Lecture · Self-Practice 7

Solution

Worked example · 6 of 6

Use constant probabilities for replacement draws

A box contains blue and white discs. The probability of blue is 1/3 and white is 2/3. Two discs are drawn with replacement. Find the probability that (i) both discs are white, (ii) the first is blue and the second white, (iii) the first is blue or the second white.

CJC · Lecture · Example 9

Solution

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