Worked solution
Compare sequential draws with unordered counter pairs
A bag contains 5 counters,3 green and 2 white. Two counters are picked at random without replacement. Find the probability that (i) one green and one white are drawn, (ii) at least one green is drawn, (iii) at least one white is drawn, given that at least one green is drawn.
CJC · Lecture · Example 7
Method 1: label the sequential tree
Let mean green or white on draw i. First-draw probabilities are 3/5 and 2/5. After green, second-draw probabilities are 2/4 green and 2/4 white; after white, they are 3/4 green and 1/4 white. Each outgoing pair sums to 1.
(i) Tree: add the two colour orders
. These are disjoint paths.
(ii) Tree: subtract the all-white path
.
(iii) Tree: reuse the earlier overlap and reference probabilities
With two draws, at least one white and at least one green means exactly one of each. Thus . This integrates the Teacher annotations pointing to part (i) for the numerator and part (ii) for the denominator.
Method 2: distinguish physical counters before counting pairs
Label the individual counters G1,G2,G3,W1,W2. These are physical identities, distinct from draw-index event notation. The 10 unordered pairs are equally likely, so the common denominator is .
(i) Combinations: choose one of each colour
There are favourable pairs: choose one of the 3 green counters and one of the 2 white counters. The probability is 6/10=3/5.
(ii) Combinations: exclude the one all-white pair
There are pairs with at least one green, giving 9/10.
(iii) Combinations: condition on those nine pairs
The favourable overlap is the same one-green-one-white event, with 6 of the 9 eligible pairs. Equivalently reuse the printed ratio (3/5)/(9/10)=2/3. Both methods count the same physical experiment with consistent outcome spaces.
Compare your sketch
Two draws without replacement
Start with 3 green and 2 white counters. Four counters remain after the first draw.
Start · probability 1
Open a branch to follow its outcomes. Outcome percentages are for complete paths. Open an outcome to see its calculation.
G₁ · Green3/5 · 2 outcomes
G₁ · Green
G₂ · GreenPath 30%
G₁ · Green → G₂ · Green- Branch weights
- 3/5 × 2/4
- Complete path probability
- 3/10= 0.3 · 30%
W₂ · WhitePath 30%
G₁ · Green → W₂ · White- Branch weights
- 3/5 × 2/4
- Complete path probability
- 3/10= 0.3 · 30%
W₁ · White2/5 · 2 outcomes
W₁ · White
G₂ · GreenPath 30%
W₁ · White → G₂ · Green- Branch weights
- 2/5 × 3/4
- Complete path probability
- 3/10= 0.3 · 30%
W₂ · WhitePath 10%
W₁ · White → W₂ · White- Branch weights
- 2/5 × 1/4
- Complete path probability
- 1/10= 0.1 · 10%
Compare outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| G₁ · Green → G₂ · Green | 3/10= 0.3 · 30% |
| G₁ · Green → W₂ · White | 3/10= 0.3 · 30% |
| W₁ · White → G₂ · Green | 3/10= 0.3 · 30% |
| W₁ · White → W₂ · White | 1/10= 0.1 · 10% |
| All 4 outcomes | 1= 1 · 100% |
Tree assumptions and source notes
Gᵢ and Wᵢ name the colour on draw i, not the identity of an individual counter.
The second draw has four counters left. Update both the colour count and the denominator; the draws are not independent.
GG, GW, WG and WW are complete ordered outcomes. The colour types GG, GW and WW are not equally likely.
Open original probability tree (new tab)Common mistakes
Without replacement, update the second-draw counts and denominator. The three colour types GG, GW, WW are not equally likely. Label physical counters for the combination method; those labels do not make the two draws independent.