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Worked solution

Separate a binomial mean approximation from its exact total

If a random sample of size 60 is taken from X∼B(9,0.5)X\sim B(9,0.5), find the probability that the sample mean exceeds 5.

CJC · Lecture · Example 7

Printed CLT method

μ=9(0.5)=4.5\mu=9(0.5)=4.5 and σ2=9(0.5)(0.5)=2.25\sigma^2=9(0.5)(0.5)=2.25. For 60 independent observations, the source uses Xˉ≈N(4.5,2.25/60)=N(4.5,0.0375)\bar X\approx N(4.5,2.25/60)=N(4.5,0.0375) by CLT. Thus P(Xˉ>5)≈1−Φ(0.50.0375)=0.0049116373≈0.00491.\begin{aligned}&P(\bar X>5)\approx1\\ &{}-\Phi\left(\frac{0.5}{\sqrt{0.0375}}\right)\\ & =0.0049116373\approx0.00491.\end{aligned}

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Authored exact comparison

The total T=60Xˉ∼B(540,0.5)T=60\bar X\sim B(540,0.5) exactly under the independent binomial model. The strict event is T>300T>300, hence T≥301T\ge301. Its exact probability is 0.004301767220. This is an additional check, not the printed CLT result; unadjusted continuous approximation and exact discrete tail differ.

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Common mistakes

The individual X remains binomial when sample size increases. Only the distribution of the sample mean is being approximated by a normal distribution.

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