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Worked solution

Estimate a population, then qualify a plug-in tail probability

The distance between a pupil’s home and school is xx km. A random sample of 60 pupils gives ∑x=33.6\sum x=33.6 and ∑x2=22.79\sum x^2=22.79. Calculate unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance.

Estimate the probability that the mean value of xx, for this sample, will be less than 0.5. State any assumptions or approximations used.

CJC · Lecture · Example 10

Estimate from the unrounded summaries

xˉ=33.6/60=0.56\bar x=33.6/60=0.56 km and s2=22.79−33.62/6059=198729500=0.06735593220… km2.\begin{aligned}&s^2\\ & =\frac{22.79-33.6^2/60}{59}\\ & =\frac{1987}{29500}\\ & =0.06735593220\ldots\text{ km}^2.\end{aligned} This is 0.067356 to 5 s.f. and 0.0674 to 3 s.f. The source prints 0.0675 at 3 s.f.; that rounding line is incorrect and the native source is unchanged.

How did this part go?

Printed plug-in CLT calculation

The source substitutes μ^=0.56\hat\mu=0.56 and σ^2≈0.067356\hat\sigma^2\approx0.067356 into Xˉ≈N(0.56,0.067356/60)\bar X\approx N(0.56,0.067356/60), by CLT for 60 independent observations. With the exact estimated variance, P(Xˉ<0.5)≈Φ(0.5−0.56(1987/29500)/60)=0.0366653904≈0.0367.\begin{aligned}&P(\bar X<0.5)\approx\Phi\left(\frac{0.5-0.56}{\sqrt{(1987/29500)/60}}\right)\\ & =0.0366653904\approx0.0367.\end{aligned} This additionally treats estimated parameters as fixed and ignores estimation uncertainty.

How did this part go?

Interpret the stated event carefully

The observed sample already has mean 0.56, so its realised mean is not random after observing the summaries and is not below 0.5. The source’s .0367 is a plug-in estimate for a hypothetical repeated independent size-60 sample from the same population, not a conditional probability that this observed mean changes. Normality of individual distances is not stated; the approximation relies on a suitable stable finite-variance sampling model.

How did this part go?

Common mistakes

Do not silently change the question’s “for this sample” wording. Distinguish the observed mean from the repeated-sample random variable, and identify both CLT and parameter-substitution approximations.

Solution notes

The source’s estimation-theory QR is retained as an enrichment reference; its external destination is not claimed incorporated. No printed marks.

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