A hint to get started
Separate infection counts from a later conditional-test model
During a pandemic, an unknown infectious disease spread through a population. Researchers wanted to study the probability, , that a person is infected. They collected some data from a random sample of 25 people.
(i) State, in the context of this question, two assumptions needed for the number of infected people to be well modelled by a binomial distribution. marks
Assume now that these assumptions do in fact hold.
(ii) It is given that the probability that at most 2 people are infected is 0.0982. Write an equation in and solve for . marks
A total of 30 random samples of 25 people were chosen from this population.
(iii) Find the probability that the total number of samples with at most 2 infected people is at least 5. marks
It is now given that .
A diagnostic test for the presence of the disease was carried out on the population. It was found that the percentage of infected people who were tested positive is 85%, while the percentage of non-infected people who were tested negative is 96%.
(iv) Find the probability that a person who tested positive carries the disease. marks
(v) Hence or otherwise, find the probability that a person who tested positive does not carry the disease. mark
(vi) Discuss briefly if the diagnostic test is worthwhile. mark
[2021/SAJC/II/10]
CJC · Review Problems · Question 17
For the diagnostic parts, restart with the newly given p=.10 and distinguish P(positive|infected) from P(infected|positive).