Porisma

Worked solution

Recover the marginal before testing independence

P(A)=0.7P(A)=0.7, P(B∣A′)=0.4P(B\mid A')=0.4 and P(A∩B)=0.28P(A\cap B)=0.28.

(i) Determine, with a reason, whether A and B are independent. marks

(ii) Find P[(A∩B)∣(A∪B)]P[(A\cap B)\mid(A\cup B)]. marks

[2014/YJC/II/10(a)]

CJC · Review problems · Question 2

Answer

(i) Independent; (ii) 14/41≈0.34114/41\approx0.341 (3 s.f.).

(i) Find B outside A and then all of B

P(B∩A′)=P(A′)P(B∣A′)=(1−0.7)(0.4)=0.12P(B\cap A')=P(A')P(B\mid A')=(1-0.7)(0.4)=0.12. Hence P(B)=P(B∩A)+P(B∩A′)=0.28+0.12=0.4P(B)=P(B\cap A)+P(B\cap A')=0.28+0.12=0.4.

How did this part go?

(i) Use the source’s conditional independence criterion

P(B∣A′)=P(B)=0.4P(B\mid A')=P(B)=0.4 with P(A′)>0P(A')>0, so B is independent of A′ and therefore of A. This establishes that A and B are independent.

How did this part go?

(ii) The intersection is already inside the union

P[(A∩B)∣(A∪B)]=P[(A∩B)∩(A∪B)]/P(A∪B)=P(A∩B)/P(A∪B)P[(A\cap B)\mid(A\cup B)]=P[(A\cap B)\cap(A\cup B)]/P(A\cup B)=P(A\cap B)/P(A\cup B). The union is the disjoint combination of A and B outside A: P(A∪B)=0.7+0.12=0.82P(A\cup B)=0.7+0.12=0.82. Thus 0.28/0.82=14/41≈0.3410.28/0.82=14/41\approx0.341 (3 s.f.).

How did this part go?

Common mistakes

The given conditional 0.4 is not automatically the marginal P(B); establish their equality first.

Solution notes

Every source equation, the complement-independence criterion, conditional numerator simplification, exact fraction, rounding and printed marks retained.

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