Porisma

Worked solution

Recover A from a disjoint region before using independence

A and B are independent events, with P(A∪B)=3/4P(A\cup B)=3/4 and P(A′∩B)=2/15P(A'\cap B)=2/15. Find

(i) P(A)P(A),

(ii) P(B)P(B).

[2010/NJC/II/8(modified)]

CJC · Review problems · Question 5

Answer

(i) 37/6037/60; (ii) 8/238/23.

(i) Subtract the shaded B-only region

P(A)=P(A∪B)−P(A′∩B)=3/4−2/15=37/60P(A)=P(A\cup B)-P(A'\cap B)=3/4-2/15=37/60. This first step is a set decomposition and does not require independence.

How did this part go?

(ii) Source method 1: use the union formula

Independence gives P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B)P(A\cap B)=P(A)P(B). Thus 3/4=37/60+P(B)−P(A)P(B)3/4=37/60+P(B)-P(A)P(B), or 2/15=P(B)[1−P(A)]=P(B)(1−37/60)2/15=P(B)[1-P(A)]=P(B)(1-37/60). Therefore P(B)=(2/15)/(23/60)=8/23P(B)=(2/15)/(23/60)=8/23.

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(ii) Source method 2: split B directly

P(A′∩B)=P(B)−P(A∩B)=P(B)−P(A)P(B)P(A'\cap B)=P(B)-P(A\cap B)=P(B)-P(A)P(B). Hence 2/15=P(B)[1−P(A)]=P(B)(1−37/60)2/15=P(B)[1-P(A)]=P(B)(1-37/60), again giving P(B)=8/23P(B)=8/23.

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Compare your sketch

Expand diagram

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Two overlapping event circles A left,B right. Only B outside A is blue, matching the source hatched region A-complement intersection B. Its probability 2/15 is removed from the union 3/4 to leave A37/60.
Two overlapping event circles A left,B right. Only B outside A is blue, matching the source hatched region A-complement intersection B. Its probability 2/15 is removed from the union 3/4 to leave A37/60.
Two overlapping event circles A left,B right. Only B outside A is blue, matching the source hatched region A-complement intersection B. Its probability 2/15 is removed from the union 3/4 to leave A37/60.

Common mistakes

Do not subtract all of P(B) from the union; that would also remove the overlap belonging to A.

Solution notes

Both asks, source shaded-region diagram and both printed methods for P(B), including their full factorisation, retained. No marks printed for this question.

Read the hint