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Worked solution

Compare used-car prices with reciprocal mileage

Adriana investigates how used-car prices depend on distance driven. A UK website lists seven cars of the same make and model; distance dd is in miles and price pp is in pounds sterling.

dd (miles)pp (pounds sterling)
1458812450
895415200
2403011900
3755110700
4545210600
3010010900
505522500

The source supplies the scatter diagram shown here and the correlation coefficient rd,p=−0.78r_{d,p}=-0.78.

(a) What conclusion should Adriana reach about the relationship between dd and pp? Justify your answer.

(b) Would the coefficient differ if distances were converted to kilometres and prices to Singapore dollars? Use the given conversions: 1 mile = 1.6 kilometres; 1 pound sterling = 1.7 Singapore dollars.

Adriana discovers that the car with d=5055d=5055 and p=22500p=22500 is a special version with a bigger engine and many extra features.

(c) Explain why this special car should not be used in the analysis.

For the rest of the question, exclude this special car.

(d) Use a reciprocal transformation to sketch pp against 100000/d100000/d. Draw a line of best fit by eye.

(e) Mark the distances used to obtain the least-squares regression of pp on 100000/d100000/d. Explain why these distances are squared and why the method is called least squares.

(f) Use your calculator to find this least-squares regression equation and the corresponding correlation coefficient.

(g) Estimate the price of an ordinary car of this make and model that has travelled 5055 miles. Explain whether the estimate is likely to be reliable.

Expand diagram

Use the scrollbars or arrow keys to inspect details.

Reconstructed source scatter of all seven cars: mileage/price pairs 14588/12450, 8954/15200, 24030/11900, 37551/10700, 45452/10600, 30100/10900 and 5055/22500. Mileage is horizontal; price in pounds sterling is vertical. The observations decrease in a curved pattern.
Reconstructed source scatter of all seven cars: mileage/price pairs 14588/12450, 8954/15200, 24030/11900, 37551/10700, 45452/10600, 30100/10900 and 5055/22500. Mileage is horizontal; price in pounds sterling is vertical. The observations decrease in a curved pattern.
Reconstructed source scatter of all seven cars: mileage/price pairs 14588/12450, 8954/15200, 24030/11900, 37551/10700, 45452/10600, 30100/10900 and 5055/22500. Mileage is horizontal; price in pounds sterling is vertical. The observations decrease in a curved pattern.

CJC · Discussion · Question 8

(a) Read the scatter together with the coefficient

Answer

Price tends to decrease as mileage increases; the scatter is curved.

The supplied r=−0.78r=-0.78 indicates fairly strong negative linear association, but the seven plotted observations show a decreasing curve that levels off. Thus a decreasing relationship is supported; a coefficient of this size alone does not make a straight-line price model appropriate.

How did this part go?

(b) Rescale both variables positively

Answer

The coefficient remains −0.78-0.78.

The new variables are 1.6d1.6d and 1.7p1.7p. Multiplying each variable by a positive constant changes the units without changing correlation. These are the conversion rates supplied for this exercise.

How did this part go?

(c) Keep the comparison population consistent

Answer

Exclude the special version from the ordinary-model analysis.

Its larger engine and extra features affect price in addition to mileage. The remaining cars are intended to represent the ordinary version, so treating this distinct specification as comparable would mix populations. The exclusion is supported by the supplied specification information, rather than merely by an inconvenient position on the scatter. Use only the first six pairs in (d)–(g).

How did this part go?

(d) Transform the six comparable cars

Answer

Plot w=100000/dw=100000/d horizontally and pp vertically; the six points are close to a rising line.

Retain the pairings and use the unrounded transformed values for fitting:

ddww (shown to 4 d.p.)pp
145886.854912450
895411.168215200
240304.161511900
375512.663010700
454522.200110600
301003.322310900

A sensible by-eye line runs through the middle of the transformed points. The diagram illustrates p=9000+550wp=9000+550w as one possible hand-drawn choice, not a unique answer or the calculator regression requested in (f).

How did this part go?

(e) Mark the response residuals

Answer

Use vertical price residuals and minimize their sum of squares.

For a candidate line p^=a+bw\hat p=a+bw, mark the vertical segment at each observed wiw_i, from the fitted price p^i\hat p_i to the observed price pip_i. The signed residual is ei=pi−p^ie_i=p_i-\hat p_i; the geometric segment has length ∣ei∣|e_i|. Squaring prevents positive and negative residuals from cancelling and weights larger discrepancies more heavily. Least squares chooses the coefficients minimizing ∑i=16ei2\sum_{i=1}^{6}e_i^2. The second diagram marks these vertical segments for the computed regression; horizontal or perpendicular distances solve different fitting problems.

How did this part go?

(f) Fit price on reciprocal mileage

Answer

p=9400+50600000/dp=9400+50600000/d; r=0.987r=0.987 (printed rounded results).

Fitting pp on w=100000/dw=100000/d with the six comparable cars gives p=a+bwp=a+bw, with

a=9398.492473025944,b=505.73025297673377.\begin{aligned}a&=9398.492473025944,\\b&=505.73025297673377.\end{aligned}

The coefficient is r=0.9869962799…r=0.9869962799\ldots, which rounds to the printed 0.987. Rounding the fitted intercept and slope gives p=9400+506wp=9400+506w, equivalently the printed p=9400+50600000/dp=9400+50600000/d. The original negative coefficient concerned dd; the transformed variable 1/d1/d decreases as dd increases, so the positive transformed coefficient is consistent with decreasing price as mileage increases.

How did this part go?

(g) Predict for an ordinary car at 5055 miles

Answer

Estimated price: £19400; reliability is limited by extrapolation.

Using the full coefficients from (f),

p=a+b1000005055=19403.0474281…,p=a+b\frac{100000}{5055}=19403.0474281\ldots,

which gives the printed £19400 to 3 significant figures. The target mileage 5055 is below the comparable sample range 8954–45452, so this is extrapolation; the transformed input is also beyond the observed reciprocal range. The actual £22500 car at 5055 miles was the special version and remains excluded. It does not provide a comparable observation that validates this prediction for an ordinary car.

How did this part go?

Compare your sketch

Expand diagram

Use the scrollbars or arrow keys to inspect details.

Six ordinary cars, with the special version excluded. Left: price against reciprocal mileage w = 100000/d, with one illustrative by-eye line p = 9000 + 550w. Right: the calculated fit p = 9398.492473 + 505.730253w, with vertical price residuals.
Six ordinary cars, with the special version excluded. Left: price against reciprocal mileage w = 100000/d, with one illustrative by-eye line p = 9000 + 550w. Right: the calculated fit p = 9398.492473 + 505.730253w, with vertical price residuals.
Six ordinary cars, with the special version excluded. Left: price against reciprocal mileage w = 100000/d, with one illustrative by-eye line p = 9000 + 550w. Right: the calculated fit p = 9398.492473 + 505.730253w, with vertical price residuals.

Solution notes

All seven asks, seven original pairs, supplied units/correlation, special-version information and exclusion for (d)–(g) retained. Printed equation, transformed coefficient and prediction preserved. Working, by-eye illustration, exact-data scatter reconstructions and residual diagram authored. No printed marks or exam reference.