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Worked solution

Find the reference means rejected by an upper-tail test

Clara, who has diabetes, monitors glucose levels that vary throughout the day. A sample of 75 readings at random times over a week gives ∑x=511.5\sum x=511.5, ∑x2=4027.89\sum x^2=4027.89.

(i) Find the set of μ0\mu_0 values for which it would be accepted that μ>μ0\mu>\mu_0 at the 10% significance level.

(ii) State, with a reason, whether that conclusion would remain valid if all 75 readings were taken during weekends.

[2006/HCI/II/22(modified)]

CJC · Discussion · Question 6

Answer

(i) Full-precision normal-approximation rejection set μ0≤6.420451763672…\mu_0\le6.420451763672\ldots; intersect with positive values only if that restriction is imposed. (ii) Weekend-only readings do not justify whole-week inference.

(i) Estimate and invert the test

xˉ=511.5/75=6.82\bar x=511.5/75=6.82 and s2=[4027.89−511.52/75]/74=7.29s^2=[4027.89-511.5^2/75]/74=7.29. Test H0:μ=μ0H_0:\mu=\mu_0 against H1:μ>μ0H_1:\mu>\mu_0. Using the source’s independent large-sample normal approximation, Xˉ≈N(μ0,7.29/75)\bar X\approx N(\mu_0,7.29/75) under H0H_0. Reject for (6.82−μ0)/(2.7/75)≥1.281551566(6.82-\mu_0)/(2.7/\sqrt{75})\ge1.281551566. Therefore μ0≤6.82−1.2815515662.775=6.420451763672….\begin{aligned}&\mu_0\le6.82\\ &{}-1.281551566\frac{2.7}{\sqrt{75}}\\ & =6.420451763672\ldots.\end{aligned} This is rejection in favour of the upper alternative, not proof of it.

How did this part go?

(i) Interpret the source’s set and rounding

The printed set is {μ0∈R:0<μ0≤6.42}\{\mu_0\in\mathbb R:0<\mu_0\le6.42\}. Its positive lower bound is an extra restriction on reference means, not a consequence of the test inequality. Without that restriction, the real-valued rejection set is (−∞,6.420451763672…](-\infty,6.420451763672\ldots]; with positive reference means, intersect it with (0,∞)(0,\infty). The bound 6.42 is rounded; if reference means are explicitly restricted to a 0.01 grid, it is the largest rejecting grid value.

How did this part go?

(ii) Coverage of the target time period

Weekend-only sampling does not cover all times during the week and need not represent the whole-week target. Randomness within weekends does not repair the missing weekday frame. The source rejects the whole-week inference for possible time-pattern bias; that does not establish any specific dietary or clinical effect. Even random times over the week need a suitable dependence model: temporal correlation can invalidate the iid standard error used here.

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10% upper reference-mean test: standard normal curve, right rejection tail area 0.1, critical z 1.281551566.
10% upper reference-mean test: standard normal curve, right rejection tail area 0.1, critical z 1.281551566.
10% upper reference-mean test: standard normal curve, right rejection tail area 0.1, critical z 1.281551566.

Common mistakes

Random times do not by themselves establish independent readings.

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