Worked solution
Distinguish unbiased variance, estimated SD and significance
A Mathematics test is administered to a large group. For 200 recorded scores, and .
(i) Find unbiased estimates of the population mean and standard deviation.
(ii) Test at 5% whether the population mean score exceeds 50. State, with a reason, whether assumptions about the population distribution are needed.
The alternative hypothesis is accepted at significance.
(iii) Find an inequality satisfied by .
(iv) Explain “ level of significance” in this context.
[2008/JJC/II/10(modified)]
CJC · Discussion · Question 7
Answer
(i) Mean 51.45; unbiased variance 281.3643216; usual SD estimate 16.8 is not generally unbiased. (ii) Do not reject at 5% (). (iii) . (iv) Approximate conditional Type I error rate.
(i) Undo the shift; qualify the SD wording
and The usual estimated SD is . The source calls that an unbiased SD estimate, matching its question, but generally is not unbiased for population SD even when is unbiased for variance. No distribution-free correction making this square root unbiased follows from these summaries alone.
(ii) p-value, critical value and model
Test , . With representative independent observations and finite variance, use under by CLT, with estimated variance. No individual normality assumption is needed for that approximation; sampling and finite-moment assumptions still are. The statistic is . Its upper p-value is 0.1107595044, printed 0.111. Do not reject at 5%; there is insufficient evidence of a mean above 50. Equivalently . The source prints 1.6445 as its critical value: this is a typo, not the 5% normal quantile. Its calculator uses rounded variance 281.36 (SD 16.773789077009), giving , , with the same decision.
(iii) Keep the significance threshold unrounded
To reject under the source convention , require The printed uses a rounded p-value and is not the exact real-valued set. If significance percentages themselves are given to one decimal place,11.1% is the least rejecting grid value. “Accepting the alternative” here means rejecting the null in its favour, not establishing it as certainly true.
(iv) Conditional Type I error
When the actual population mean score is 50, this rule has approximately probability of wrongly concluding that the population mean exceeds 50, under the stated large-sample model. This is not a probability that the alternative hypothesis is true; variance estimation and CLT make the nominal error rate approximate.
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Common mistakes
The source’s critical 1.6445 and “unbiased SD” wording need explicit corrections. No assumption of population normality does not mean no sampling or moment assumptions.