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Worked solution

Test a minimum string length and interpret a strict boundary

A company sells balls of string. A manager claims average length is at least 300 m. A random sample of 100 balls gives ∑(x−300)=−60\sum(x-300)=-60 and ∑(x−300)2=1240\sum(x-300)^2=1240.

(i) Find unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance.

(ii) Test at 5% whether the manager’s claim is valid.

The process is improved and the new population variance is known to be 12.1 m². A new random sample of 100 balls has mean kk m. A test at 10% indicates that the manager’s claim is valid for this process.

(iii) Find the least possible kk, giving your answer to 2 decimal places.

CJC · Discussion · Question 8

Answer

(i) Mean 299.4 m; variance 1204/99≈12.2 m². (ii) Reject at 5% (p≈0.0427p\approx0.0427). (iii) k>299.554211592532…k>299.554211592532\ldots; no least real value, or minimum 299.56 m if k is restricted to two-decimal increments.

(i) Shifted estimates

xˉ=300−60/100=299.4\bar x=300-60/100=299.4 m and s2=1240−(−60)2/10099=120499=12.1616161616…≈12.2 m2.\begin{aligned}&s^2\\ & =\frac{1240-(-60)^2/100}{99}\\ & =\frac{1204}{99}\\ & =12.1616161616\ldots\approx12.2\text{ m}^2.\end{aligned} The source truncates this to 12.161 before testing; retain the full estimate.

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(ii) Challenge the “at least” claim at its boundary

Use H0:μ=300H_0:\mu=300 versus H1:μ<300H_1:\mu<300, with 300 the boundary of the composite claim μ≥300\mu\ge300. For independent large-sample observations, Xˉ≈N(300,(1204/99)/100)\bar X\approx N(300,(1204/99)/100) under the boundary null. Then z=−1.720503673z=-1.720503673 and lower-tail p=0.04267046326≈0.0427≤0.05p=0.04267046326\approx0.0427\le0.05. Reject: sufficient evidence at 5% that mean length is below 300 m. Equivalently z<−1.644853627z<-1.644853627. The source Z-Test screen enters SD 3.4872625367185 from truncated variance 12.161, mean 299.4,n 100 and alternative <, giving z≈−1.720547259z\approx-1.720547259, p≈0.0426664692p\approx0.0426664692; the conclusion agrees.

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(iii) Failure to reject is not verification of the claim

For the improved process, use the known new variance 12.1, not the old estimate. Under the boundary null, Xˉ≈N(300,12.1/100)\bar X\approx N(300,12.1/100) by CLT; the individual population is not stated normal. The source interprets “claim is valid” as do not reject the lower-tail null at 10%. Since rejection includes p=0.10p=0.10, non-rejection requires p>0.10p>0.10, or z>−1.281551566z>-1.281551566. Thus k>300+Φ−1(0.10)12.1/100=299.554211592532….\begin{aligned}&k>300\\ &{}+\Phi^{-1}(0.10)\sqrt{12.1/100}\\ & =299.554211592532\ldots.\end{aligned} This is only insufficient evidence against the claim, not proof that μ≥300\mu\ge300.

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(iii) A least value requires a precision convention

Over real-valued kk, this strict set has no least member; its infimum is 299.554211592532…. The source prints k>299.55k>299.55 after rounding, which is not the exact set:299.551 would satisfy that printed inequality but fail the test condition. If the sample mean itself is required to lie on a 0.01 m grid, its least admissible value is 299.56 m. Rounding the infimum to 299.55 is not the same as a feasible minimum.

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5% lower string-length test: standard normal curve, left rejection tail area 0.05, critical z -1.644853627 and observed z -1.720503673. 10% lower improved-process test: standard normal curve, left rejection tail area 0.1, critical z -1.281551566.
5% lower string-length test: standard normal curve, left rejection tail area 0.05, critical z -1.644853627 and observed z -1.720503673. 10% lower improved-process test: standard normal curve, left rejection tail area 0.1, critical z -1.281551566.
5% lower string-length test: standard normal curve, left rejection tail area 0.05, critical z -1.644853627 and observed z -1.720503673. 10% lower improved-process test: standard normal curve, left rejection tail area 0.1, critical z -1.281551566.

Common mistakes

Not rejecting H 0 does not prove the manager’s claim. The improved-process variance is known 12.1, and the strict non-rejection boundary cannot be replaced by a rounded ≥ bound.

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