Porisma

Worked solution

Check the normal model against the possible mark range

An examination is marked out of 100 and taken by a large number of candidates. The mean mark is 72.1 and standard deviation 15.2. Give a reason why a normal distribution with this mean and standard deviation would not give a good approximation to the marks.

[2008/H1/7(a)]

CJC · Discussion · Question 2

Answer

About 3.32% of the proposed normal distribution is above the maximum possible mark 100.

Evaluate both impossible tails

Under the proposed model X∼N(72.1,15.22)X\sim N(72.1,15.2^2), the source gives P(X<0)=1.05×10−6P(X<0)=1.05\times10^{-6} and P(X>100)=0.0332P(X>100)=0.0332.

How did this part go?

Relate the probabilities to the context

Marks must lie between 0 and 100. The model assigns about 3.32% of candidates marks above 100. The source describes about 3% of a large cohort as significant; that substantial impossible upper tail makes this a poor approximation. The tiny lower tail is also impossible, but is not the main objection.

How did this part go?

Common mistakes

A large cohort does not remove the upper bound on marks.

Solution notes

Complete source prompt and both calculated tails retained, including its about 3% argument. Normal notation identified as the model being assessed, not an accepted model. No marks printed.

Read the hint