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Worked solution

Derive and calibrate a logistic population model

A town has population 30003000. The number infected after tt days satisfies dI/dt=kI(3000−I)dI/dt=kI(3000-I), k>0k>0.

(i) Given I(0)=30I(0)=30, show I=3000/(1+99e−3000kt)I=3000/(1+99e^{-3000kt}). marks

(ii) Given I(7)=240I(7)=240, find when 90%90\% of the population is infected. marks

(iii) State one contextual assumption needed for the model. mark

[2013/JJC/II/2]

CJC · Review problems · Question 6

Answer

I=3000/(1+99e−3000kt)I=3000/(1+99e^{-3000kt}); 90%90\% infection at approximately 22.122.1 days; a model assumption is constant population with no recovery.

(i) Separate and integrate the partial fractions

For the specified initial state, 0<I<30000<I<3000. Since

1I(3000−I)=13000(1I+13000−I),\frac1{I(3000-I)}=\frac1{3000}\left(\frac1I+\frac1{3000-I}\right),

integration gives ln⁡∣I/(3000−I)∣=3000kt+C\ln|I/(3000-I)|=3000kt+C, hence I/(3000−I)=Ae3000ktI/(3000-I)=Ae^{3000kt}. Solving, I=3000Ae3000kt/(1+Ae3000kt)I=3000Ae^{3000kt}/(1+Ae^{3000kt}).

How did this part go?

(i) Use the initial count

30=3000A/(1+A)30=3000A/(1+A) gives A=30/2970=1/99A=30/2970=1/99. Therefore I=3000/(1+99e−3000kt)I=3000/(1+99e^{-3000kt}), as required.

How did this part go?

(ii) Use the later observation before solving the target

240=3000/(1+99e−21000k)240=3000/(1+99e^{-21000k}) gives e−21000k=23/198e^{-21000k}=23/198 and k=−ln⁡(23/198)/21000k=-\ln(23/198)/21000. For I=2700I=2700, e−3000kt=1/891e^{-3000kt}=1/891. Thus t=7ln⁡(1/891)/ln⁡(23/198)≈22.1t=7\ln(1/891)/\ln(23/198)\approx22.1 days from the initial observation, rather than an additional 22.122.1 days after day 77.

How did this part go?

(iii) Preserve the printed modelling assumptions

Any one source assumption suffices: the total population remains 30003000; infected people remain infected (no recovery during the model); or individuals have equal opportunity of infection under homogeneous mixing. These state the idealised model assumptions rather than conclusions about a real disease.

How did this part go?

Common mistakes

The requested time is measured from t=0; the calibration observation at day 7 does not reset the clock.

Read the hint