Worked solution
Derive and calibrate a logistic population model
A town has population . The number infected after days satisfies , .
(i) Given , show . marks
(ii) Given , find when of the population is infected. marks
(iii) State one contextual assumption needed for the model. mark
[2013/JJC/II/2]
CJC · Review problems · Question 6
Answer
; infection at approximately days; a model assumption is constant population with no recovery.
(i) Separate and integrate the partial fractions
For the specified initial state, . Since
integration gives , hence . Solving, .
(i) Use the initial count
gives . Therefore , as required.
(ii) Use the later observation before solving the target
gives and . For , . Thus days from the initial observation, rather than an additional days after day .
(iii) Preserve the printed modelling assumptions
Any one source assumption suffices: the total population remains ; infected people remain infected (no recovery during the model); or individuals have equal opportunity of infection under homogeneous mixing. These state the idealised model assumptions rather than conclusions about a real disease.
Common mistakes
The requested time is measured from t=0; the calibration observation at day 7 does not reset the clock.