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Worked solution

Explain the product of infected and susceptible proportions

Find the general solution of dy/dt=ky(1−y)dy/dt=ky(1-y), 0<y<10<y<1, k>0k>0, in the form y=f(t)y=f(t). marks

Find the particular solution with y(0)=1/4y(0)=1/4, and sketch it. marks

Here yy models the proportion infected by a disease. Explain why the differential equation may be suitable. marks

[2013/RVHS/II/1]

CJC · Review problems · Question 8

Answer

y=Aekt/(1+Aekt)y=Ae^{kt}/(1+Ae^{kt}), A>0A>0; particular y=1/(1+3e−kt)y=1/(1+3e^{-kt}), with inflection (ln⁡3/k,1/2)(\ln3/k,1/2).

Integrate on the stated proportion interval

1/[y(1−y)]=1/y+1/(1−y)1/[y(1-y)]=1/y+1/(1-y). Hence ln⁡[y/(1−y)]=kt+C\ln[y/(1-y)]=kt+C, since the ratio is positive. Thus y/(1−y)=Aekty/(1-y)=Ae^{kt} with A=eC>0A=e^C>0, giving y=Aekt/(1+Aekt)y=Ae^{kt}/(1+Ae^{kt}). The equilibrium endpoints 0,10,1 are outside this question’s explicit strict range.

How did this part go?

Apply the initial proportion and sketch the sigmoid

1/4=A/(1+A)1/4=A/(1+A) gives A=1/3A=1/3, so y=ekt/(3+ekt)=1/(1+3e−kt)y=e^{kt}/(3+e^{kt})=1/(1+3e^{-kt}). It increases through (0,1/4)(0,1/4), approaches 11 as t→∞t\to\infty, and its formal past limit is 00. Since y′′=k2y(1−y)(1−2y)y^{\prime\prime}=k^2y(1-y)(1-2y), it is initially concave up and changes to concave down at (ln⁡3/k,1/2)(\ln3/k,1/2). The formula-based sketch resolves the early concavity that the rough source sketch does not distinguish.

How did this part go?

Explain both factors in the rate

More infected people, represented by yy, create more opportunities to pass on infection. More susceptible people, represented by 1−y1-y, create more opportunities for those contacts to cause new infections. Under homogeneous mixing the rate is proportional to their product y(1−y)y(1-y), with positive proportionality constant kk.

How did this part go?

Compare your sketch

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Logistic curve plotted against scaled time kt: y=1/(1+3exp(−kt)), passing through (0,1/4), with inflection at (ln3,1/2) and horizontal limiting levels 0 and 1. Negative scaled time shows the formal extension.
Logistic curve plotted against scaled time kt: y=1/(1+3exp(−kt)), passing through (0,1/4), with inflection at (ln3,1/2) and horizontal limiting levels 0 and 1. Negative scaled time shows the formal extension.
Logistic curve plotted against scaled time kt: y=1/(1+3exp(−kt)), passing through (0,1/4), with inflection at (ln3,1/2) and horizontal limiting levels 0 and 1. Negative scaled time shows the formal extension.

Common mistakes

An initial proportion below one half gives an initially concave-up sigmoid, not a curve concave down for all future time.

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